- The author is ~100% invested, arguing CLMT should be worth $80–100 today: core specialties annualizes ~$1B FCF at $5 base-oil cracks, while MRL adds ~$500M at a $3.50/gal RD index and SAF ramp.
- At those spot conditions, estimated combined FCF is $1.5B against a $4.3B market cap (35% yield); parent and MRL cash would retire debt, reduce $90M interest, and begin paying down the Warburg preferred.
- Applying 12–15x FCF yields $96–120/share; discounting two years at 10% produces the author's $80–100 present-value target. The thesis depends on sustained cracks, RD economics, and SAF execution.
Investment pitches
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63 68 - Author is long-side below 30 cents, arguing INV is priced for bankruptcy despite a $20M market cap and newly announced $60M ATM.
- Drawing more than $10M publicly would reprice WTI warrants to the lowest issuance price; at 25 cents, author calculates 52M new shares against 87M outstanding—60% dilution.
- Author expects INV to seek WTI’s covenant waiver and sell Accelsius shares privately to QIPs instead, which he views as the only way to preserve equity.
- The thesis depends on WTI cooperating; success could support $1+ or $2–3+ in an Accelsius Series C scenario, while sub-10-cent trading for 10 days risks delisting.