- ASTS’s proposed reusable 20-ton Blacklift would reduce Falcon 9 dependence and complete vertical integration; first flights target late 2028 with up to five BlueBirds.
- The Firefly deal costs about $1.3B, including ~$900M cash and ~3% dilution, while near-term launch relief depends on Vulcan and New Glenn returning.
- Clear Street reiterates Buy and a $115 target, valuing ASTS at 20x 2029E adjusted EBITDA of ~$2.1B versus roughly 6x at $30.
- Pending FCC approval for Ligado’s 80-plus-year, up-to-45 MHz rights could imply author-estimated spectrum value of $16.8B versus an ~$11.7B market cap; IRDM opposes.
Investment pitches
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70 62 - ASTS has fallen 69% since late May on Starlink concerns, but the author argues its neutral MNO-partner model needs less spectrum than Starlink’s direct carrier competition; Starlink has 80MHz versus over 300MHz for the average Tier 1 US carrier.
- Commercialization remains targeted for early 2027: Bluebirds 14–16 have arrived and 17–50 are in production, though launch slippage and dependence on SpaceX Falcon 9 remain important execution risks.
- The author sees ASTS’s 60+ MNO relationships and neutral status supporting sovereign and government demand. ROTH reiterates a Buy rating and $108 target, with launches, manufacturing milestones, and commercialization as sentiment catalysts.
87 - ASTS is building a wholesale, neutral-host network for 60+ mobile operators; nearly 50 gateways and government/defense revenue support the commercial path, leaving launch cadence as the main bottleneck.
- SpaceX’s V2 phone constellation requires about 1,200 satellites in six months—roughly 24 Starship flights—while Starship lacks a regular cadence and Flight 15 has slipped. The author sees ASTS about six months ahead.
- Clear Street maintains a Buy rating and $115 target, supported by $3.7B of pro forma cash; the thesis weakens if New Glenn slips or Starship reaches regular cadence early.
80 - Deutsche Bank upgrades ASTS to Buy with a $93 target after a ~65% decline; it values leased spectrum at $19B versus $23B EV, leaving ~$4B for the business.
- Potential catalysts include T-Mobile switching from Starlink, SDA-backed government work, and Japan LEO approval that could fund up to $1B of satellite capex.
- Launch availability remains the key execution risk: Blue Origin is rebuilding capacity, while ASTS may pay SpaceX and others to accelerate deployment, commercial service, and revenue.