- BTC lost the $82.5k support-resistance flip and retested $80k; reclaiming $82–82.5k is needed, while a clean $76k break opens the low $70ks.
- BTC is trading with Nasdaq and AI risk: Thursday’s $636M spot-ETF outflow coincided with a 2.6% Nasdaq drop, exposing crypto to wealth-effect deleveraging.
- Oil at $116.72 and CPI at 3.7% raise inflation risk; a December-leaning FOMC could lift yields and retest $80k, while a dovish hold offers room until PCE.
- The stance is cautious, not bearish: wait for FOMC/PCE to pass without surprises and BTC to reclaim $82.5k; the desk sees little directional conviction.
Investment pitches
filter:
74 80 - BTC fell 3.2% as U.S. spot ETF outflows reached $679M, the largest weekly total since late June; $1.19B of liquidations were concentrated in longs.
- Equities have roughly 29% Q3 earnings growth to support a 5.24% 10-year yield; crypto has no earnings, so upside depends on new money arriving.
- The author remains constructive longer term only if long-end yields settle and spot ETF flows return to net inflows; caution rises above 5.64% on the 30-year or with repeated $82.5k BTC bounces.