- BDSX is the author's 12.2% holding; at 2.63x gross profit, he sees substantial upside but accepts possible total permanent loss.
- He expects 23–24% growth in the November 5 report; broader multicancer screening could detect more lung nodules, increasing the strategic value of BDSX's technology to acquirers.
- The November 11 MRD presentation by Chief Scientific Officer Gary Pestano is the next information point; his prior Ventana connection reinforces the author's confidence in the team.
- Schuler bought around $24.50 in August, but BDSX's $223m market cap and roughly half insider-owned float make price action less reliable.
Investment pitches
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65 76 - AI remains a long-term bullish thesis, but adjusted exposure fell to 23.4% from 30–35% while the book stayed 88% net long; the author expects near-term pressure, not a net-short bet.
- Regime-resistant holdings support the portfolio: BDSX trades at 2.43x revenue with 82% gross margins and 30% growth, while Samsung Preferred trades 25–30% below common despite identical economics.
- The author favors Samsung’s earnings and dividend support over NBIS’s optimism: Samsung needs 2027–28 results to hold, while NBIS requires the AI trade to work broadly; AI-bio and cybersecurity shorts remain despite timing uncertainty.
72 - Author remains bullish on TEM, CAI and especially BDSX, which he considers cheap versus bio-diagnostics peers; he would add TEM at $60 or below.
- Samsung Preferred looks too cheap after strong results; if Samsung dedicates 50% of earnings to dividends, the resulting payout could be substantial. Author may add on further weakness.
- Author remains short cybersecurity: PANW, CRWD and NET approach $1T of market cap on under $20B of revenue, while hyperscalers and frontier AI labs could capture the economics.
- AI-enabled attacks support the cyber bull case, but the author expects frontier labs to improve defenses and take share; correlated long/short positions still create residual risk.