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  1. 77

    Bitcoin’s cycle low may be in, but long-end yields are the risk

    2,247 wordsTokenX ↗
    • After a roughly 40% rally from cycle lows below $60k, the author estimates an almost 90% chance those lows will not be broken.
    • The 30-year yield’s move from about 5% toward 5.7%—driven by AI capex, energy inflation risk, and fiscal distrust—could pressure Bitcoin if rates, credit spreads, or bond volatility worsen.
    • The author reduced aggressive BTC exposure but retains a substantial position; local caution remains, with potential additions on moving-average pullbacks or a macro clearing event.
    • Stablecoins and tokenization lead his crypto themes, but he prefers Bitcoin over 5–10 years, excluding quantum tail risk; tokenized equities now exceed 1% of stablecoin supply.