- Author maintains an S&P 500 target of 8,000 this year, with upside to 8,400, and 10,000 for 2027; the thesis requires earnings growth and falling bond yields.
- Third-quarter profits are tracking 29.6% year-on-year growth; history suggests more than 35%, with quarter-end estimates beaten in 37 of the past 40 quarters.
- At $450 of S&P earnings and a 4% 10-year yield by end-2027, the spread would widen from 52 to 176 basis points at an unchanged index; holding the original spread implies roughly 10,000, or 22x earnings.
- Participation remains narrow, with only about 29% of companies outperforming over three years. The author expects choppiness through the midterm vote, then a lower-rate rotation into cyclicals if oil falls and earnings deliver.
Investment pitches
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