- NBIS is the author's preferred neocloud because engineering depth, vertical integration, execution, and capital allocation may support sustainable economics beyond GPU acquisition.
- Strong AI-compute demand does not ensure attractive returns: financing costs, power access, infrastructure, customer relationships, and hardware-cycle economics determine long-term margins.
- Industry consolidation could reduce new capacity and improve pricing for capable operators, but the author retains NBIS conviction while stressing unresolved economics and execution risk.
Investment pitches
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64 70 - Author made OMDA a large position and believes it could 5x because its decade-plus evidence, data, payer relationships, integrations, and buyer trust are difficult to replicate.
- Omada sells covered chronic-care benefits through employers, health plans, and PBMs; those payers may promote enrollment because better outcomes could reduce healthcare costs, including GLP-1 coverage tied to enrollment.
- Existing payer channels let Omada convert eligible covered lives instead of acquiring every consumer through advertising, supporting more scalable CAC; the author acknowledges competitors such as Virta also have credible evidence.