Investment pitches
- 1.85
- BTC’s near-term setup turned bearish after three failures at the 50-week MA, ATH VWAP and range highs; roughly $100B of supply moved near resistance, suggesting more overhead selling than sticky demand.
- Shorts are already cleansed, leaving little positioning-driven fuel, while negative gamma can amplify declines. Renewed equity correlation, rising yields, higher collateral haircuts and possible equity-vol expansion favor downside into midterms.
- Author’s base case is a move toward ~$70K BTC over the next month, viewed as buyable; long-term cycle lows remain in, with willingness to buy weakness or go long above range highs after confirmation.