- Author sees ASTS’s Ligado spectrum rights as the overlooked asset: FCC approval for up to 45 MHz across 340M POPs implies up to $16.8B, above the ~$11.7B market cap.
- The opportunity depends on FCC approval; Iridium opposes the arrangement over alleged spectrum hoarding, while Ligado disputes that claim.
- Blacklift would reduce Falcon 9 dependence but costs ~$1.3B; the Firefly deal requires ~$900M cash and ~3% dilution versus $3.7B pro forma cash.
- Clear Street reiterates Buy and $115, valuing ASTS at 20x 2029E adjusted EBITDA; current shares trade at ~6x that $2.1B estimate, with a $110 DCF cross-check.
Investment pitches
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82 65 - ASTS is down 69% since late May versus Nasdaq’s 3%; the commentary maintains Buy with a $108 target, arguing Starlink concerns overlook different go-to-market models.
- ASTS’s neutral-partner model spans 60+ MNOs and 3B+ subscribers; the author estimates Starlink’s capacity for large-scale primary service at under 5%, versus ASTS’s complementary coverage role.
- Commercialization remains targeted for early 2027, with satellites 14–16 at Cape Canaveral and 17–50 in production; launch slippage and Falcon 9 dependence are key execution risks.
- The author sees sovereign-constellation upside, citing Japan’s ¥150bn subsidy and reported Starlink-related Ukraine disruption; manufacturing, launches, and commercialization are sentiment-changing milestones.
84 - Clear Street maintains a Buy rating and $115 target, valuing ASTS at 20× 2029E EBITDA of $2.0B, or roughly 12× revenue.
- SpaceX’s competing V2 constellation depends on Starship: reaching 1,200 satellites in six months would require about 24 flights, while cadence remains unproven; service arrives in early 2028 at best.
- New Glenn’s clean December return is pivotal for ASTS capacity; the rocket can carry up to eight BlueBirds, though report expects on-orbit impact only by mid-2027.
- Signed demand supports the thesis: Japan selected the ASTS-Rakuten venture for its roughly $1B J-LEO program. The report would reconsider if New Glenn slips or Starship reaches regular cadence early.
67 - ASTS fell 10.5% after SpaceX announced its spectrum purchase, but Deutsche Bank upgraded it to Buy and retained a $93 price target.
- The 800 MHz spectrum is expected to support SpaceX’s direct-to-consumer offering, while ASTS targets carrier-partner space-to-device connectivity; the purchase may not directly worsen ASTS’s competitive position.
- SpaceX competing with major carriers could push them closer to ASTS, though a failed Blue Origin launch has already delayed ASTS’s constellation buildout.