Investment pitches
- 1.66
- Author sees ORBIO potentially becoming Pons’s first $1bn asset from roughly $40–43m, as CREDIT makes inference a transferable, par-denominated ERC-20 rather than an API allowance.
- Each 1.5% ORBIO/NVDA swap fee splits between the company and inference credits for stakers; current $5–12k/day implies ~9–22% APR on $19.5m staked, paid in CREDIT sold around $0.78.
- The bull case is CREDIT becoming infrastructure for agent budgets, DeFi, launches and inference markets; future platform fees are intended to buy back and stake ORBIO.
- Valuation remains unforecastable, with regulatory classification and OpenRouter’s anti-resale terms as material risks; Orbio says its funded gateway addresses the latter.
- 2.61
- The author’s chosen bet is $AI: Robinhood Chain’s native assets trade at a fraction of prior-cycle runners, while wallet ownership resembles pre-run structures—an argued valuation gap if new users and liquidity arrive.
- Tokenized equities are the main catalyst: supply is under 0.05% of Robinhood’s equity book and fewer than 3% of users are onboarded, leaving US rollout, voting rights, and broader tokenization as growth paths.
- Cross-chain demand reinforces the thesis: Robinhood captures nearly 50% of Fomo volume with roughly one-sixth of Base’s TVL; the long-term bet depends on flows, core-user onboarding, and macro/regulatory clarity.
- 3.76
- AI is pitched as Robinhood Chain’s potential base money: $40m+ liquidity, ~30% of cross-chain meme-stock value, and ~15% of its ~$36m daily volume in cross-pairs.
- With no native chain token, the author sees a monetary seat for AI: 10 pairs opened Sep 3–9, while BONER/AI became BONER’s top venue in seven days, handling 35–37% of trading.
- Base assumptions—$1.5bn paired-meme FDV, 19.5% AI-pair share and 15% velocity—yield $103m/day volume, $31m/year revenue and $0.5–1.2bn value (~2–5× today); probability-weighting gives $3.7bn (~19×), but bridge or stock-routing failure leaves the $20–90m bear case.