Investment pitches
- 1.78
- BTC is 50% below its all-time high after a 40-week bear market; the author sees rare signals suggesting a cycle low may be near.
- Record oversold readings versus the Nasdaq and gold historically preceded BTC outperformance and positive 1–3-year returns, but offer little near-term timing.
- Realized price is $53K, 18% below spot; historical lows all traded below it, so a move toward $53K would fit rather than invalidate the thesis.
- The author calls now–December 2026 a conditional reaccumulation window, with modeled outcomes turning positive in 2027–28; tiny, correlated samples and structural change threaten the pattern.