- CMPS is awaiting completion of its rolling NDA submission, expected this quarter; a National Priority Voucher targets roughly 1–2 months of FDA review after filing, though timing and approval remain uncertain.
- Management expects to “go slow before we go fast,” implying a measured initial revenue ramp to protect patient and provider experience; collaborations spanning 1,000+ sites provide launch infrastructure.
- Management frames pricing at $50k–$65k annually per patient, or roughly $17k–$22k per dose before administration and monitoring. The author expects a good label, maintains a $45 PT, and cites Spravato’s ~$2.5B annualized sales as demand evidence.
Investment pitches
filter:
71 80 - Author views CORZ’s ~590MW CRWV agreement as HPC’s most advantaged deal; 70%+ is built and should be complete by early 2027, reducing execution risk.
- CRWV infrastructure cost $5.5B versus an estimated $7.5B replacement cost; CORZ’s first lien could provide a “capex put” if CRWV cannot pay, allowing the assets to be re-leased.
- Depending on discount rate and terminal value, the author values this at $10–$13/share today; AMD adds ~530MW, plus 1.5GW of future expansion.
- The thesis is downside protection rather than 5–10x upside: the author says CORZ trades like riskier peers and bought back below $15 after selling at $20–$26.
61 - SPHR's selloff followed weak WOZ sales data: ~1.2m/day versus the author's 2027 trough estimate of 1.4–1.6m; he sees the valuation impact as excessive.
- Concerts, advertising and bookings are improving, while two and possibly more additional Spheres are in production.
- The repeatable model depends on new films generating $1.5–2.5m/day; author expects 2–3 launches next year and in 2028, and is buying at $100–$120.