- Author believes NBIS can exceed $40B ARR in 2027 while trading below 1x forward ARR today, making the market’s valuation imply a poor business.
- His default fair-value framework is 10x ARR in a normal market; dilution, debt, interest and profitability are reflected through share count and the selected multiple.
- He expects capacity growth, better financing, utilization, reliability and customer support to prove stronger unit economics and justify a premium over weaker neoclouds.
- The 2027 target is roughly intact, but higher capital costs have compressed the possible multiple to 3–7x versus 10x; macro could drive 5–20x volatility.
Investment pitches
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