- Nebius ($NBIS) offers exposure to power-constrained AI compute: cloud revenue reached $582.3m in Q2 2026, while AI Cloud adjusted EBITDA margin approached 50%.
- Vertical integration, managed software, customer prepayments covering 50–60% of major-deal CapEx, and asset-backed debt could convert scarce capacity into shareholder earnings.
- The author’s $265 base case implies 42.5% upside from $186.01, assuming $70.5bn of 2030 revenue, $17.5bn of replacement-adjusted operating earnings, a 13× EV multiple, and 400m diluted shares.
- The thesis remains execution-dependent: the $70.5bn revenue forecast exceeds Gartner’s projected 2030 specialized-neocloud market, while obsolescence, pricing normalization, concentration, financing needs, and dilution threaten returns.
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