- The author argues memory scarcity can persist through end-2030: HBM is contractually committed, while CXMT’s 8% DRAM share and announced DDR5 product do not prove competitive mass production.
- Industry comments support structural tightness: SK hynix cites shortages through 2030, Micron says demand exceeds supply with customer contracts through 2031, and the next downturn may differ from past cycles.
- Optical supply may be tighter still: indium-phosphide shortages could exceed memory constraints, with Nvidia and hyperscalers ordering hundreds of millions of lasers versus historical hundreds.
- The author remains bullish on memory and optical beneficiaries—Micron, SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, Lumentum, Coherent and Marvell—and urges investors to look past short-lived fear.
Investment pitches
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