- PBIT’s 10% Bitcoin floor captures only about a third of Bitcoin’s moves; fees hurt flat markets, and its monthly-reset floor still lost 28% in a slow-bear backtest.
- The author favors hXXI: it keeps Bitcoin’s full move and retains option income in BTC. Its factsheet reports 3.9% annual BTC yield, 17 of 20 positive epochs, and 1.8% maximum drawdown of the Bitcoin stack.
- PBIT improves the modeled worst 5% outcome from -60% to -30%, but cuts the best 5% from +80% to +35%—the trade-off for protection.
- In 20,000 zero-drift paths to December 2027, hXXI had ~5% expected return versus under 1% for PBIT and 0% for IBIT; modeled return/risk was 0.11 versus 0.04.
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