- CRS supplies scarce, years-to-add qualified furnace time for premium superalloys and titanium; aerospace and defense account for about two-thirds of sales.
- Pricing drives operating leverage: Specialty Alloys margin rose from 11.9% to 37.8% over 18 quarters, while FY26 operating income grew 34% to $702M on 8.6% sales growth.
- Management guides FY27 operating income to $850–880M and FY29 to $1.2–1.3B; the author models $19.87 FY29 EPS, 19.2x at $381, versus 28.5x FY27.
- Author opened a starter position, targeting $466–501 in 12 months; it remains small because aerospace previously cut sales 38% and caused FY21–22 operating losses. Q1 reports Oct 22.
Investment pitches
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89 75 - Author argues today’s S&P 500 leaders have 33% net margins and 36.1% of earnings, versus 9.1% margins and roughly 15% of earnings at the 2000 peak.
- AI leaders rose 2.9% while earnings grew 3.1x over a comparable period; author cites a 0.2–1.6 PEG range versus 1.6–5.7 in 2000.
- The largest tech companies generated $1.10T of operating cash flow and $523B after capex, unlike debt-dependent telecoms and highly leveraged banks in prior crises.
- Author remains long AI picks-and-shovels names, citing $2.3T of signed cloud backlog and supply bottlenecks; memory’s cyclicality and early monetization remain qualifications.