- DBS cut SE’s 12-month target to $105 from $148, moving from SOTP to a 0.8x PEG-based P/E framework; the author says this compresses Shopee, Monee, and Garena’s distinct economics.
- The long-term thesis is an integrated ecosystem: Shopee brings demand and merchants, SPX provides fulfilment, and Monee adds payments and credit, raising logistics density and monetisation.
- The author views logistics and ShopeeVIP spending as ROI-efficient growth investment, while arguing analysts underweight Monee and Sea’s unoptimised long-term earnings power.
- Risks include PDD expansion, renewed TikTok Shop subsidies, and Migoo spending; DBS estimates a $73m–$175m FY27 adjusted EBITDA impact. The author remains cautious on Migoo but trusts management.
Investment pitches
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71 84 - GRAB’s $11.8B market cap and $5.4B net cash imply $6.4B EV, or ~3.7x management’s 2028 $1.7B adjusted EBITDA target if execution holds.
- Core operations are strengthening: Q2 revenue rose 22%, adjusted EBITDA 54%, and margin expanded from 13.3% to 16.9%; FinServices profitability by H2 2026 could steepen earnings.
- Atome is the pivotal bet: only ~1% of Grab’s 138M annual transacting users currently borrow, but successful integration could turn its data, distribution and deposit base into a major lending franchise.
- The author remains bullish but cautious as incentives, competition, regulation and ~$2.5B of planned 2026 acquisitions raise execution risk; $900M of planned buybacks supports the valuation.
73 - Grab is paying $1.49B for 60% of Atome after 2025 revenue rose 80% to $470M; undisclosed margins, credit losses, and cash generation prevent a valuation judgment.
- Atome supplies underwriting history, a $1B loan portfolio, and 30,000 merchant relationships; Grab contributes distribution and data, while only 1% of 138M annual transacting users borrow today.
- Financial Services, including Atome, targets $500M of 2028 adjusted EBITDA, about 29% of group; however, the disclosed $300M Atome/Superbank contribution is combined, not an Atome acquisition yield.
- The author calls GRAB below $3 a huge buying opportunity for long-term believers, but flags execution, weak organic growth, competition, and Indonesian regulatory risks.