- Author is buying more APP before earnings, arguing the stock was repriced faster than the business deteriorated; Q2 revenue rose 53% to $1.92B, with $863M FCF and an 84% adjusted EBITDA margin.
- AXON’s technology, data infrastructure and machine-learning systems support operating leverage; despite assumed margin normalization and slower growth, author models FCF/share after SBC rising from $13.29 in FY2026 to $59.13 in FY2032.
- If cash generation continues, ~$551M of Q2 repurchases and future buybacks could reduce the share count, compounding per-share cash-flow growth beyond revenue growth alone.
- At 18x FY2032 FCF, the author’s $59/share estimate implies roughly $1,064; earnings will test advertiser ROAS, e-commerce traction, growth durability and the competitive moat.
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