- Author is buying ORCL after it was the only one of 2,000+ screened companies to meet 11 criteria, including 21.6% revenue growth, 35.4% expected EPS growth, 34.3% operating margin, and 15.0x EV/EBITDA.
- ORCL trades at a 21.55% discount to peers and a 17.46% adjusted discount to its history; its $664B backlog equals 1.25x EV and is growing 45.93%, providing revenue visibility.
- The thesis risk is funding delivery: $28.5B quarterly capex, $125B+ borrowings, leases, depreciation, and dilution could prevent contracted demand from becoming attractive ROIC and sustainable FCF per share.
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