- At ~$28, HROW implies ~$1.1bn equity value plus ~$250m net debt; the author says this price works even if guidance is missed widely and targets arrive years late.
- Conservative case: revenue reaches ~$500m by 2029, requiring ~17% annual growth from the author's $316m 2026 estimate, below management's $350–365m guidance.
- The scenario reaches ~$150m adjusted EBITDA, or a 30% margin, then assumes growth slows to ~3% with no second growth phase, G-MELT, or further acquisitions.
- The core question is whether build-out growth becomes cash while costs stay controlled; the author is watching November and still sees >50% upside, while owning shares.
Investment pitches
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