- Hyperscalers want US optical capacity as a second source; Chinese suppliers hold ~60% of datacom component revenue, supporting AAOI's US-made premium thesis. Bipartisan restrictions could reinforce it, while the author sees a trade deal as the bigger risk.
- Under 10% of 800G/1.6T component value comes from China, but Ningbo and supplier exposure could matter under broader rules; Texas targets over half of 930,000 monthly units by 2027. S. 5548 would cover federal procurement, not commercial sales.
- Author remains long but sized smaller: Q2 revenue rose 86% to $191.9m, while margin stayed ~29–30.5%; $565.5m of capital investments and a $600m stock sale heighten dilution risk. Q3 1.6T revenue, Q4's $70m target, margin and share count are tests.
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