- Author remains skeptical that AAOI can deliver the explosive EPS and revenue growth priced in; opaque management and possible dilution raise balance-sheet concerns.
- After losing roughly 70% from its all-time high, AAOI is testing support from several technical indicators and its 0.618–0.786 retracement zone, but support alone does not confirm a bottom.
- A durable reversal requires a trend-channel breakout and base breakout above mid-$100s; the $95–$115 volume concentration remains overhead supply, while an exceptional earnings report could shift sentiment.
- A poor report and further peer weakness could drive AAOI toward $40–$50. The author’s $505+ Wave 3 target depends on the projected earnings growth being achieved.
Investment pitches
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77 64 - Celestica’s rejection near the $436–$463 Fibonacci resistance zone invalidated the Primary Wave 5 setup; the author now views the stock as having formed a major top.
- In LT Wave 2, CLS is testing $253 support, with a $238–$239 cushion below; tomorrow’s earnings fallout may determine whether the selloff deepens.
- RSI at 26 is its lowest since April 2025, while weekly Williams %R shows potential bullish divergence—but neither confirms a bottom, and downside momentum remains strong.
- The author considers valuation attractive against expected growth and favors CLS long term, but plans heavy investment only after reversal confirmation or near-guaranteed bottom signals.