- Most chains are VC-style bets: roughly 80% go to zero, while survivors are sovereign L1s, specialists, L2 franchises, or balance-sheet-backed tokens.
- Blockspace is the product; adoption and capital on the rails matter more than fees, since competition drives marginal transaction costs toward zero.
- The author’s January 2025 test found fee yield and TVL/FDV predicted nothing; velocity predicted returns inversely—Solana churned capital ~200x locked value versus Ethereum ~7x.
- Survivors retain economic density, stablecoins, and developers through drawdowns: Ethereum, Solana, and Sui held density; one 83%-down chain grew stablecoins ~50%. The author sits on Sui Foundation.
Investment pitches
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