- VICR's key upside hinge is the latest VPD license: author expects over $20m quarterly going forward, though initial payments may include retroactive catch-up; May's deal paid $5m quarterly in year one and $10m in year two.
- The license drove guidance 20% beyond the prior 10% increase—about $28m above the original sequential-growth outlook—making payment durability the central earnings question.
- Fab1 targets an $800m run rate by year-end and at least $1.5b thereafter; alternate sourcing could free capacity for higher-margin VPD and create substantial operating leverage.
- Gen2 VPD is entering customer qualification, while Fab2 could support its 2027–28 ramp. Despite macro caution, the author holds VICR and would add near $160 absent bad news, seeing potential for a power-delivery “mini ARM.”
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