- Galaxy argues BTC’s bear market ended in June: 200-week support held, the 50-week average was reclaimed for five weeks, and day 916 is beyond prior cycle-bottom windows.
- Positioning supports accumulation: asset managers’ CME futures longs fell 57%, leveraged shorts shrank from 71.4k to 30.6k BTC, while ETFs added 87k BTC since June.
- The fundamental case is fiat debasement: a $1.99T deficit, $40.44T debt and 5.31% 10-year yield increase pressure to inflate, supporting fixed-supply BTC.
- Galaxy recommends adding and holding BTC, sees $125k as a level to retake, and would reconsider if weekly price stays below $76,540 or ETF holdings break 1.22m BTC.
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