- BTC’s $76.7k–$77k area may be a local bottom, but the author does not consider the $57.8k cycle low confirmed and is not chasing strength below resistance.
- Perpetual taker delta rose +3,856 BTC, with $13.8M of short liquidations and 0.82% OI contraction; however, five-day spot and perpetual deltas remained negative, indicating short covering against medium-term seller control.
- Confirmation requires holding $75k–$77k, reclaiming $83.2k and $85.5k–$87.4k, then a weekly close above $90k–$93k with persistent ETF inflows and spot-led demand.
- A break below $76.85k invalidates the local-bottom setup; acceptance below $57.8k would damage the 2027 recovery thesis. The author sees a tactical long only after a reclaim with positive spot delta and falling OI.
Investment pitches
filter:
91 82 - Bitcoin’s 80.3k flush drew 550 Dec 78k calls, 455 Mar 80k calls, and $10M of put-hedge unwinds; net flow was +$11M into calls, while November 98k calls were sold, implying upside bought but near-term capped.
- For the Oct. 16 expiry, 24.2k BTC OI, 85k resistance, 83.5k support, and 81–87k implied range point to the author’s 82–86k chop base case.
- The Oct. 30 expiry has 190.9k BTC OI and a 77.6–90.5k range. Long gamma (+$110M) should suppress volatility until the Fed’s Oct. 27–28 window resolves the range.
- The author is lean constructive and expects an 80–90k box until the Fed; a hawkish hike alongside $93 oil could push the month to 77.6k.
66 - Weak NFP (+29K vs. 90K expected; July negative, August revised 162K to 133K) leaves a hiking Fed vulnerable, while the dollar fell 0.23%.
- Despite BTC fading from $86.6K to $83.8K, desks bought and rolled upside: $914K in November $90K calls, $4.0M in deep-ITM October $70K calls, and $1.86M rolled into March $88K calls.
- Structures target $92K–$96K by October 30, with a $301M Derive call condor and onchain block-flow share rising from 2.5% to 15% supporting the venue-shift theme.
- The October 27–28 Fed meeting is the key date; below $82K, the author says these positions become downside fuel. ETH remains a weaker beta trade than BTC.