- Author prioritizes where on-chain finance and tokenization could direct the next $1T, arguing allocation choices—not trading BTC around $75k–$81k—will matter more for 2027 returns.
- Reduce sizing, remove unedgeable levered beta, and concentrate on high-conviction bets with near-term catalysts: kinetiq:native/Elysium, AERO/multichain expansion, and DRV/options TAM.
- The thesis favors asymmetric “OTM calls”: ZEC and HYPE currently resemble major-like beta, while the author accepts 20%+ altcoin drawdowns if sizing can survive volatility.
Investment pitches
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66 63 - The airdrop distributed $12.5m of Kinetiq:native for $8.81m, creating $3.7m of community PNL against a $100m token market cap.
- The core bullish point is the team’s $8.81m of working capital for partnerships, talent, infrastructure, marketing, and incentives; the author expects deployment to benefit tokenholders more than buybacks would.
- With 16.3m tokens unclaimed, activity filtering limited dilution. The author favors returning them to the foundation, arguing directed incentives could generate several multiples of token burns through higher Elysium activity.
- The author upgrades the airdrop to B+/A-, seeing dilution largely behind and $0.26 recipient cost bases as support, while acknowledging communication shortcomings and execution dependence.
67 - The author’s conviction rose after the 10/21 Aero launch received a greenlight, removing a delay risk that previously caused a sharp selloff.
- Citrini’s basket gives the token equal weight to HYPE and nearly twice Ethereum’s, potentially bringing forward a rerating previously tied to post-upgrade flywheel proof.
- Locked supply in LPs and veAERO makes the token reflexive; the author cites a prior doubling from $0.75 to $1.50 in 10 days.
- The author sees a pre-upgrade path to 50% of Ethereum’s market cap and roughly $2.30, while not expecting parity until after the upgrade.