- AAOI’s demand exceeds capacity through 2027; a $1–1.5bn 1.6T hyperscaler agreement, $400–450m order book, and Q4 revenue guide of $385–420m support the ramp.
- In the 50% middle case, capacity exceeds 1.0m units/month, utilization reaches 80%, and 1.6T reaches 35% of units, driving FY27 revenue of $3.33bn and EPS of $6.60—about 7x current-price FY27 EPS.
- Scenario values range from $38/$47 in the 30% downside case to $257/$422 in the 20% upside case; probability-weighted values are $134/$201 under FY27/FY28 methods.
- The author owns AAOI because the downside is near today’s price and the middle case is roughly 3x, but the ramp burns about $1.1bn in 2027 and may require debt and equity, creating dilution and execution risk.
Investment pitches
filter:
88 76 - NBIS is being sold as a leveraged AI-infrastructure bet, but the author points to $775M asset-backed financing at SOFR +2.50%, a $3.5B Citi-arranged facility, $5.75B in converts, and NVIDIA’s $2B investment.
- More than $9B in expected 2026 customer prepayments, plus 70% of Q2 deals covering 50–60% of capex, means customers help fund infrastructure before revenue; Microsoft and Meta contracts add visibility.
- AI cloud demonstrated nearly 50% adjusted EBITDA margins in Q2, though not free cash flow. The author remains extremely bullish despite capital intensity, October 2027 refinancing needs, and convertible dilution.
90 - H1 2026 operating cash flow was $114.2m, but $112.9m came from higher customer deposits; after $99.9m of finance-lease payments and $39.7m investing outflows, the author’s calculation is ~$25.4m negative, including growth investment.
- BRUN’s contract value includes renewal options and letter-of-intent volume not yet performance obligations; the author wants reconciliation before treating headline contract value as firm, enforceable backlog.
- An amended Q1 filing changed controls from effective to not effective, citing material weaknesses; after a September 29 CFO award of 2.89m RSUs worth ~$48.1m, the author concludes BRUN is a no-go pending durable cash generation.