- At $4, ZURA is valued at ~$500M market cap (~$300M EV, ~$205M cash); the long author sees the market treating tibulizumab as Cosentyx-like ahead of an estimated mid-November HS readout.
- Core thesis: IL17A potency matters more than IL17F. Author cites >100x receptor-affinity difference, weak Cosentyx binding, underdosed Taltz, and higher-dose IXORA-P; ZURA’s >3x Taltz dose and >2x half-life could approach Bimzelx efficacy.
- Author scenarios range from roughly 2x on an AVTX-like ~17% HiSCR75 delta to 5x+ on an MLTX-like ~24%, but flags binary risk; MLTX later missed one P3 and SSc’s striking brodalumab evidence was followed by an unexplained withdrawal.
Investment pitches
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