- BRUN trades at about $0.71B EV—1.8x the ~$400M December run-rate target and below half of ~$1.55B in SEC-filed contracts—supporting the author’s bullish valuation case.
- The operating case is accelerating: revenue rose 270%, run rate reached $145M from $30M in six months, and new GPU-hour prices rose from $3.45 to $4.13 as contract terms lengthened.
- The author is invested, but sees financing the next $1B of GPUs as the decisive risk: no facility is announced, and Q3 in mid-November should address it; governance risk is real but not viewed as a red flag.
Investment pitches
filter:
84 73 - After SOI rose ~6x this year and fell 25% in two weeks without company news, the author sees an opportunity: its Photonics SOI wafers serve competing AI optical designs.
- Smart Cut's exclusive licence, 4,300+ patents, ~80% global SOI share, precision, qualifications and 10+ capacity contracts create a hard-to-replace supply position.
- Photonics revenue guidance rose from ~$105M last year to $250–300M this year; FY29 outcomes range from flat to ~3x, depending on optics replacing copper in GPU-to-GPU links.
- Margin recovery is the test: loading fell to 48% and gross margin to 16.3% from 32.1%; 65%+ loading is targeted. November 18 results matter, while a licence expires June 2027.
75 - DOCN is pitched as an agentic-AI cloud, not merely a GPU lessor: agents need runtime, memory, storage, databases, tools and web access—services DigitalOcean already sells to 680,000 customers.
- AI customer revenue run rate reached $234M, up 212%; inference grew about 800%, and 85% of AI revenue comes from inference and core cloud. About 70% of $100K+ AI customers also buy core cloud.
- The case remains conditional: agent products have no disclosed revenue and are mostly unsupported previews; gross margin fell from 61% to 55%, $2.76B of leases are pending, customer concentration increased, and valuation is about 7.7x 2027 revenue.
85 - $BRUN fell 73% to $11.47 while signed contracts rose from $940M at listing to more than $2.6B; author sees a valuation gap and remains long.
- Take-or-pay GPU contracts are ~22% prepaid, funding ~31% of hardware; filed contracts would produce ~$430M annually when live, while Q2 revenue reached $31.1M and adjusted EBITDA margin 39.5%.
- At 3.9x peer valuation on the year-end figure, author calculates roughly $17/share; the key test is secured financing below 10% for $1.0–1.2B of 2026 capex, not dilutive equity.
- Watch mid-November lender terms and Q3 revenue, estimated at $45–52M; unfunded $4–5B procurement, customer and ramp risk, H1 cash flow excluding deposits of ~$1M, and dilution remain key risks.
85 - The author owns BRUN and ranks it best risk-adjusted: Q2 revenue rose 270% YoY to $31.1M, adjusted EBITDA was $12.3M, and $1.33B EV equals 2.4x 2027 consensus revenue.
- Named, prepaid Thinking Machines and Cohere contracts support roughly $1.55B of filed contract value, but a $1.0–1.4B 2026 capex guide and no committed credit facility leave financing unresolved.
- WYFI owns powered land and has cleaner GAAP obligations, making it the upside alternative if NC-1 financing closes; delays, shrinking underlying revenue, and a parent bridge with a 50.6% effective rate keep the author sidelined.
- SHAZ is last and binary: NVIDIA represents 56% of its $8.8B contract book, while $4.5–5B remains to raise; program redesign risk and dilution make its 0.07x TCV multiple misleading.