Investment pitches
- 1.80
- Author views CORZ’s ~590MW CRWV agreement as HPC’s most advantaged deal; 70%+ is built and should be complete by early 2027, reducing execution risk.
- CRWV infrastructure cost $5.5B versus an estimated $7.5B replacement cost; CORZ’s first lien could provide a “capex put” if CRWV cannot pay, allowing the assets to be re-leased.
- Depending on discount rate and terminal value, the author values this at $10–$13/share today; AMD adds ~530MW, plus 1.5GW of future expansion.
- The thesis is downside protection rather than 5–10x upside: the author says CORZ trades like riskier peers and bought back below $15 after selling at $20–$26.
- 2.69
- After rejecting $779, SPY pulled back to $764.43—above the expected $762–$759 zone—where buyers defended established support.
- The bullish setup is supported across weekly, daily, and 4-hour charts: rising trendlines, moving averages, and a bull pennant all held or were reclaimed.
- If this becomes another support-driven bottom, the author targets $799–$800 within 11 trading days, a 4.5%–4.7% gain; the smaller correction and nearby resistance limit expectations.
- 3.68
- Author is long-side below 30 cents, arguing INV is priced for bankruptcy despite a $20M market cap and newly announced $60M ATM.
- Drawing more than $10M publicly would reprice WTI warrants to the lowest issuance price; at 25 cents, author calculates 52M new shares against 87M outstanding—60% dilution.
- Author expects INV to seek WTI’s covenant waiver and sell Accelsius shares privately to QIPs instead, which he views as the only way to preserve equity.
- The thesis depends on WTI cooperating; success could support $1+ or $2–3+ in an Accelsius Series C scenario, while sub-10-cent trading for 10 days risks delisting.
- 4.69
- MSCI is consulting on moving Indonesia directly from Emerging Market to Standalone Market, bypassing Frontier; the author sees this as more damaging than the previously discussed downgrade.
- The bearish case rests on opaque ownership, questionable free-float quality, suspected coordinated trading and unreliable price discovery—not valuation; new rules have not proved implementation or enforcement.
- Standalone status could remove Indonesia from a broader universe of benchmark-driven institutional portfolios, pressuring equities, especially stocks with substantial foreign institutional ownership.
- This remains a consultation, not a decision; MSCI is expected to announce by end-June 2027, while existing restrictions on Indonesian securities remain.
- 5.62
- Broadcom’s networking breadth—optical DSP, Tomahawk and Jericho—could drive earnings upside as Tomahawk 6/7, Tomahawk Ultra and optical DSPs ramp in 2027, supporting a future re-rating.
- Marvell’s investor day framed it as scalable AI infrastructure, not only custom silicon and DSP; 1.6T, NPO/CPO and scale-out/up remain early volume opportunities.
- KLAC is a risk/reward re-rating trade after falling 42% in 3.5 months, partly lagging LRCX and AMAT, rather than a developed long-term thesis.
- The author bought the dips but remains cautious ahead of semiconductor earnings, waiting for several days of positive net flows before gaining confidence that repeated drawdowns have not damaged investor appetite.
- 6.63
- ZC is framed as an early bet on privacy infrastructure on Ethereum, a theme the author expects to remain dominant in crypto.
- After falling from roughly $44M to $2.2M, ZC offers a 95% drawdown entry; prior mindshare could support a reflexive recovery, with a return to its high implying about 20x.
- The thesis depends on the anonymous team continuing to ship and accelerating product fees; the author cites recent updates, positive developer feedback, zero dev-wallet sales, and token burns.
- The author is long and may add lower, while acknowledging anonymous developers, unaudited contracts, centralized upgrade controls, and limited history.
- 7.72
- After a severe selloff, WGMI has retraced to the neckline of the multi-year accumulation structure it broke out from in 2025; five holdings comprise roughly 40% of the fund.
- Power-access companies are converting capacity into long-duration compute contracts, but capital intensity, financing risk, execution challenges, and higher yields are driving the repricing.
- The author sees attractive asymmetry approaching: $30 needs to become support, while failure could expose ~$24 at the 0.887 Fibonacci level without necessarily invalidating the longer-term thesis.
- 8.80
- CIFR has retraced to its 0.887 Fibonacci level near historical demand and its long-term trendline, creating a clearer technical risk/reward setup than IREN.
- IREN’s comparable 0.887 level is around $19.40, roughly 30% below current levels; its prior $69 extension test leaves more structure to revisit.
- Both lost their 21-month EMAs. A month-end reclaim of $13 for CIFR or $34 for IREN is needed to improve the trend picture; further weakness remains possible.
- Contractual commitments and emerging 12–18-month earnings potential make long-term asymmetry increasingly compelling, but the author emphasizes disciplined accumulation, position sizing, and patience.
- 9.78
- Author shorted semis after a rapid range-to-breakout move without a meaningful pullback, expecting failure and a retracement into the prior range.
- The move has fully retraced; author covered 95% of the short and plans to close the remaining house-money runner tomorrow.
- Author is not broadly bullish: AI-hardware competition is rising, much is priced in, and backlog supports demand visibility—not earnings, margins, or valuation.
- 10.86
- Anthropic’s $2T valuation implies ~30x annualized revenue; Q3 reached $16.8B (+45% QoQ), with 85% adjusted gross margin.
- The treadmill combines $518B committed over a decade, 80% owed regardless of usage, with flagship pricing premiums lasting six weeks, then three.
- Author views $965B fair; $2T requires $200B 2028 revenue and 30% cash margins, with ~1-in-5 joint odds and two-in-three below-IPO odds within 18 months.