Harry Stebbings × Matt Swulinski

Matt Swulinski argues SaaS should adopt e-commerce’s performance-growth engine: immediate paid validation, hundreds of UGC creatives, and spend tied to purchases or adds to cart.Wispr Flow’s fivefold budget test, Google-led mix, and 10–15% affiliate contribution illustrate the playbook, while missing SaaS attribution infrastructure and the 400–500 monthly creative requirement remain execution risks.

Gavin Baker

Anthropic’s reported $2T IPO figure may be banker theater rather than a clearing price, while Gavin Baker and Sacks estimate 2027 exit ARR at roughly $400–500B, constrained by physical supply.NVIDIA’s $500B financing effort could make GPU compute an asset class and support a capital-light cloud business, while Anthropic’s S-1 will test demand and dark-GPU risk.

Ben Horowitz × Travis Kalanick × Erik Torenberg

Adams is positioning “industrial AI” as an atom-based computer, with robotic food production at roughly $6–8 per meal targeting delivered meals near grocery-store cost and mining automation pitched as 20% more gold per year.Transport becomes the platform’s wheelbase across multiple hundred-billion-dollar industries, but the thesis still hinges on proving autonomy faster than Waymo and overcoming resistance to change.

Kevin Roose × Casey Newton × Max Spero

Meta’s 6,500-word AI manifesto doubles as a policy wish list covering data centers, chip controls, training data, and distillation.Improved training runs lifted Kevin Roose’s estimate of Meta achieving superintelligence from 1% to 10%, while bioweapons remain unresolved.Pangram’s classifier, Anthropic’s EU watermarks, and roughly 50/50 bot traffic point to rising provenance demand.

Molly O'Shea × Adam Foroughi × Giovanni Ge

AppLovin rebuilt after a 92% post-IPO drawdown around Axon 2, with EBITDA run rate now over $7 billion.Semantic embeddings replaced Axon 1’s hundreds of thousands of if/else branches, improving extrapolation and lowering GPU costs while e-commerce showed decent ROAS on a premature model.Reaching a trillion-dollar valuation requires over $30 billion in annual cash flow, putting category expansion and creative execution under scrutiny.

Andrew Sharp × Ben Thompson

NVIDIA’s financing platform with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR pitches AI GPUs as long-lived infrastructure for patient capital.Yet A100 pricing at CoreWeave may reflect stranded air-cooled facilities, while abstraction above CUDA and potential overcapacity leave GPU economics, timing, funding air pockets and NVIDIA’s moat unresolved.

Peter Diamandis × Salim Ismail × Dave Blundin × Alexander Wissner-Gross × Emad Mostaque

NVIDIA is moving from chip vendor to financing architect, partnering with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield and KKR to mobilize over $500B for customer compute.The scalable AI-factory model faces stranded-asset risk from unpredictable depreciation, while xAI’s Grok 4.6 uses Cursor reasoning traces and NVIDIA GPUs, with Emad Mostaque saying Grok 4.7 could reach #1 within weeks.

Elena Burger × Andy McCall × Joe Schmidt

Joe Schmidt’s 2x2 contrasts lighthouse AI sales, where proof travels amid buyer exposure, with land grabs, where budgets make the math decisive.Andy McCall’s Samsara example links 2016–2019 ELD mandate and mid-market focus to faster feedback despite AT&T and Verizon.AI boards and buy-by-X deadlines may open a software window, but founders need ACV discipline and hard-dated POCs with upfront criteria.

Sarah Guo × Erik Allebest

Chess.com is on track for a little over $200 million in revenue this year with 10M DAU, 40–50M MAU and 250M+ registered members, achieved without primary capital after a $56K 2005 domain purchase.Cash-flow-funded product and community compounding lifted the baseline through successive demand waves, while the secondary-only CVC deal and General Atlantic reinvestment improved operational maturity.Gambit and the billion-player ambition extend expansion paths, while cheating enforcement and AI governance remain risks to monitor.

Harry Stebbings × Jason Lemkin × Rory O’Driscoll

Canva’s 2026 growth outlook has fallen from 30% to roughly 20%, while agents may bypass prosumer tools without user churn, exposing a structural distribution risk.At roughly $4B ARR, Jason Lemkin sees $12B fair value if growth does not decelerate, but proving ChatGPT-cannibalization wrong—and monitoring AI serving costs—remains decisive.