Harry Stebbings

OpenAI’s proposed round shrank from $30 billion to $20 billion, with about $11 billion committed, as Rory compares its $1.25 trillion valuation with potentially public Anthropic at $1.5–$2 trillion.DoorDash’s reported $17 billion Instacart deal could combine cited 60% and 20% delivery shares, subject to antitrust clearance, while agents’ direct-order potential threatens platform take rates despite negligible volumes today.

Jonah Van Bourg × Avi Felman

The Democratic sweep signals an affordability revolt, not rejection of conservative principles; Avi sees a three-month post-midterm relief window, unless the Iran war continues.Slower data-center supply could benefit Amazon and Microsoft, while a stalled Galaxy Helios build could send shares to $8.Oil divides the hosts: Avi expects a short, while Jonah sees Strait of Hormuz risks supporting a rebound.

José Maria Macedo × Paavan Gami

India’s early IPOs can expose public investors to venture-style compounding: Gami cites a roughly $350 million median valuation, 70% founder-family ownership, and category leaders listing at $600 million–$1 billion.His thesis hinges on compliance-driven consolidation, with 5–6% leaders potentially reaching 30–40%; Eternal and Meesho show contrasting routes through rapid delivery and low-price logistics, making market-share gains central to the opportunity.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Martin Casado

Frontier models captured 80%+ of dollar-weighted demand over three years, yet Casado estimates an individual model’s commercial lifespan at just three to six months.Startups may still pay 10 times more for the smartest model, sustaining pricing power even as coding workflows saturate.If demand saturates, value could shift to open source, a transition Casado says “nobody knows” how it would unfold.

李翔 × 李丰

美股AI交易转向检验投入回报：微软宣布融资250亿美元后，谨慎开支带来的部分涨幅回吐。李丰称美股总市值约为美国M2的3.5倍，流动性周期尾部波动加剧，急跌时点仍无法判断。A股受公募风格监管及12月1日试行新规推动提前再平衡，外围急跌时跌幅和速度可能减缓一些。

Shanghao Jin

Shanghao Jin 承认十月低估流动性：半导体仓位转负、标普估值由23倍降至18倍；Anthropic 融资结束及美国是否继续打仗是反弹观察点。远期需求不明令 AI 融资折价，产业却提前锁定算力；建设瓶颈或延长 GPU、CPU 短缺，却令 DRAM 承压。

Thread Guy × GoodAlexander

Anthropic’s inference growth slowed from 140% to 45% quarter on quarter, putting frontier AI valuations at risk if Fable 5.5 fails to reaccelerate Q4 demand.A cheaper model matching Opus could compress adjusted inference gross margins from 50–60% to 10–15%, while AI search weakens Google’s monopoly pricing as search falls below 50% of revenue.CoreWeave’s blended financing can be manageable while GPU rental rates hold, but expanding capacity into slowing inference demand risks saturating the market with tokens.

Molly O'Shea × Shardul Shah

Bloomberg’s January 2026 figures put Index’s 2012 fund at 11X DPI versus a 1.5X industry average, and its $780 million 2015 growth fund at 5.1X.Shah says a roughly 25% valuation gap should not stop a deal; with model advances every few months unsettling AI retention, adaptable founders become central to durability.

庄明浩 × Koji

明浩认为，Seedance凭短剧打通生产、分发、广告变现、模型再投资和用户数据闭环，生态远大于可灵。OpenAI于3月24日关闭Sora Tool后，Perplexity可能已值两三百亿美元，Character.AI同类已有四五家公司月流水可能超一千万美元，显示边缘赛道也能长出大公司。

庄明浩 × Koji

庄明浩称Seedance领先依靠独家数据与短剧广告闭环，通用模型能否打穿视频及物理能力仍待验证。Anthropic于6月4日展示局部自我改进循环的可能，下游数据、后训练需求或增，全天候Agent也放大安全风险。小模型追赶前沿已由18—24个月缩至九个月；垂直公司不必成为万亿美元巨头，也可做成百亿至两百亿美元公司。