Sourcery

Molly O'Shea × Nikesh Arora

AI is compressing zero-day remediation from 55 days to Palo Alto Networks’ four-hour patch delivery, forcing infrastructure modernization.Mythos has moved cybersecurity to the CEO agenda, directing demand toward existing partners and structurally favoring incumbents.Arora sees cybersecurity’s SaaSpocalypse as over, but expects markets to become more discerning in roughly two years as perfect-execution pricing meets stumbles.

Molly O'Shea × Adam Foroughi × Giovanni Ge

AppLovin rebuilt after a 92% post-IPO drawdown around Axon 2, with EBITDA run rate now over $7 billion.Semantic embeddings replaced Axon 1’s hundreds of thousands of if/else branches, improving extrapolation and lowering GPU costs while e-commerce showed decent ROAS on a premature model.Reaching a trillion-dollar valuation requires over $30 billion in annual cash flow, putting category expansion and creative execution under scrutiny.

Tony Kim × Molly O'Shea

AI has reset the market toward compute hardware, with Kim estimating more than $30T in chips and hardware versus roughly $10T in software, services, and internet.The resulting $1T of CapEx this year and $10T over five years is moving data centimeters and millimeters, but three-to-four-year fab cycles face memory shortages, making 2030 milestones such as quantum and orbital data centers key watchpoints.

Everett Randle × Molly O'Shea

AI is breaking the spreadsheet playbook: billion-dollar businesses can still lack unit economics or durable differentiation, and scale may increase impairment risk.Inference monetization can drive revenue from 1 to 30 to 300, while agents shift purchases toward intelligence or economic output.Frontier labs retain pricing power if recursive self-improvement works, but face a 95%-as-good open-source squeeze if capabilities plateau.

Kyle Harrison × Molly O'Shea

Anduril challenges defense’s cost-plus, built-to-spec model with fixed-price, built-to-mission products for high-volume, low-cost, attritable conflict, where US munitions could last roughly 11 days.Lattice links Sentry Towers, Fury, Copperhead, and EagleEye’s $22 billion IVAS contract through sensor fusion; the small number of neo-primes makes execution and second-order beneficiaries worth monitoring.

Hemant Taneja × Molly O'Shea

Anthropic is adding $10 billion of revenue a month and NVIDIA added $1 trillion of market cap in 100 days, highlighting AI-era scale concentration.GC’s counter-bet spans seed, Creation, and Customer Value Fund strategies, while 15x-to-3x revenue-multiple compression could leave even doubled-EBITDA software equity unrecovered.Leverage coming due in the next five years makes AI transformation opportunities and durability uncertainty key variables to monitor.

Molly O'Shea × Gili Raanan

Wiz’s $32B deal remains pending after European approval Monday, while its biggest revenue quarter supports Raanan’s view that “we probably sold low.”Concentrating pain, authority, user, and budget with the CISO compressed sales to 45 minutes and produced $1M, $2M, $8M, and $24M across four quarters.Raanan warns AI could bring cybersecurity’s darkest period in the next 10 years, with self-aware agents and mega-agents challenging human defense.

Thomas Laffont × Molly O'Shea

Anthropic’s raise saw projections and business scale move materially within months, while board decks show AI-tool spending expected to at least triple next year.With the Mag 7 flat and Microsoft shedding almost $1 trillion, SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Revolut and Databricks could reshape the index, while SaaS faces reacceleration, multiple compression, and harder-to-control terminal value.

Philip Clark × Molly O'Shea

Thrive’s $29B OpenAI entry reflected belief in GPT-4 and a claimed moat in generating successive large-model paradigms; reported valuation later reached $500B, with users surpassing a billion.Cursor grew from low-single-digit millions of ARR to hundreds of millions in 18 months, while Wiz paired six-figure deals closing in weeks or months with almost no churn.The next catalysts are reinforcement learning entering production software and intelligent hardware targeting well north of 50% of global GDP.

Molly O'Shea × Deedy Das

Goodfire, staffed by early Anthropic, DeepMind, and OpenAI interpretability researchers, is Das’s marquee “brain surgery for AI models” bet.Demographic decline makes AI for unhireable insurance, trucking, and logistics jobs a need-now market, not a future-capability wager.Carta’s 30% AI Series A premium may reward genuinely deep teams, while over-raising and RL bottlenecks keep pricing and timelines unresolved.