based16z × Thread Guy

Hyperliquid became based16z’s defining trade after he recognized its superior product and exceptional founder before an investable token existed.Rare asymmetric setups—not frequent activity—powered positive crypto years despite a 25%–30% win rate, while oversized positions and 40x leverage damaged realized returns.Whop marks his shift toward positive-sum equity and products, but permanent holding remains unresolved.

Thread Guy × Mert × Illia Polosukhin × ZK Dragon × Tulip King

Current AI advances have not meaningfully weakened the factoring or elliptic-curve problems securing major blockchains, leaving cryptographic resilience intact for now.Smart-contract hacks appear the more immediate loss risk, while cheaper formal verification and adaptable schemes at Zcash and NEAR contrast with Bitcoin’s rigidity if a breakthrough emerges.

Avi Felman × Arthur Hayes

BitMEX found product-market fit in a crowded spot-exchange market by pairing high leverage with perpetual swaps as Bitcoin rose.Hayes says it exited without losing customer funds, but the insurance fund’s disposition remains unresolved.He sees government support for AI firms as a possible crypto catalyst, while Flop Network remains a speculative bet on cheap compute and agent growth.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × David Vélez

Vélez sees fintech disruption in its first inning: roughly 90% of the $10 trillion consumer-finance market still runs through branches.Nubank serves 140 million customers with 10,000 employees, at about 3% of traditional incumbents' cost to serve.Its US launch and stablecoin-backed accounts in upwards of 35 countries test whether that efficiency can travel, with organic brand-building the key hurdle.

Jason Yanowitz × Michael Weisz

Kamino is positioning itself as embedded lending infrastructure that turns tokenized assets into productive collateral while distributors retain customer ownership, with Binance Wallet users already depositing $100 million into its vaults.The model requires transparent, cash-generating assets and day-one liquidity; Kamino currently has only credit and liquidity, will avoid venture-fund lending for six months, and expects revenue from interest spread or net interest income sharing.

Michael Arrington

Michael Arrington frames AI panic, sovereign debt, geopolitical tension, and institutional decay as overlapping Fourth Turning symptoms, not one clean “doom” event.He argues US labs cannot slow AI development while China may continue racing; Bitcoin could hedge institutional risk and become autonomous AI’s native transaction layer, while founder psychology and capitulation inform bear-market entry.

Ansem × FaZe Banks

Ansem views the selloff as the first meaningful pullback since late June, with Bitcoin’s $75,000 level deciding whether the bullish structure remains addable despite rates and war risk.His 70/30 barbell pairs high-conviction spot holdings with speculative onchain and perpetual trades, recycling exceptional gains while limiting the risk of one meme trapping the portfolio.PUMP, HYPE and STRK offer near-term catalysts through revenue, platform execution and privacy or quantum-resistance narratives, but their asymmetric targets remain contingent on broader adoption beyond crypto’s existing bubble.

Jordi Alexander × Justin Bram × Taiki Maeda × Dim Selk

Zcash was the panel’s highest-conviction, highest-fragility trade, with Taiki calling it “the coin of the cycle” as Project Tachyon approaches.Crowding across ZEC, HYPE, Lighter and NEAR leaves buybacks weak and downside unresolved, while Variational’s Q4 TGE, $4 billion-plus daily volume and 32% airdrop offer a competing catalyst amid expected market dispersion.

DeFi Dad × Nomatic × Kyle

Capital is concentrating in businesses with usage, revenue and tokenholder alignment, as Hyperliquid’s roughly 99% buyback model raises token-economics and disclosure standards.Kyle favors Venice’s VVV and selected digital-asset treasuries, while expecting a K-shaped cycle where roughly 90% fail and strong alts can rise even if BTC ranges around $90,000-$100,000.

邵艾伦 × 孙宇晨

核心不是押中单一赛道，而是把健康、工作与决策沉淀为可迁移数据，用多模型交叉分析并持续调参。机会集中在数据密集且处理不足的领域，AI基础设施、生物健康金融、全球支付与Agent结算可受益于更低的搜索、分析和交易成本，但波场规模、合规与采用仍待验证。