MARKET UPDATE: Live With GMoney, Inflation Is In, Is This The Crypto Top?
- Avi's macro framework: a hike at the next meeting looks near-certain after the in-line CPI print, but the cycle won't last because Washington treats AI as national defense. “The government will do whatever they need to do to keep the AI capex cycle going... they view it like they have to win” against China. The tell: intervention in the yen and Bessent discussing—and then carrying out—the long-end purchase with the S&P just 5% off all-time highs: “the market sniffed them out. That's why gold caught a bid. That's why Bitcoin got a bid.”
- GMoney's contrarian side-take: hyperscaler CDS spreads are “fake” — “I just don't think they matter.” Google/Microsoft/Facebook credit risk is basically U.S.-government credit risk regardless of debt load — “they're not a Lehman,” with no balance-sheet mismatch — so widening spreads should come back in.
- Avi is super bullish on Nvidia and sees the circular-financing concerns as potentially creating a stealth SaaS business. By financing neocloud capex, Nvidia could build a residual, capital-light revenue stream — “that's like a SaaS business” deserving higher multiples — and the stock has consolidated for about two years. GMoney tweeted bullish before earnings; Avi bought into earnings and “absolutely ripped that trade.”
- GMoney's probably biggest on-chain bag is Quotrons (~$10M mcap), a one-way ERC-404 where burning the liquid token into an NFT pays trading fees in tokenized stock. He sees meme/tokenized-stock pairings “creating the demand sink to bring stocks on chain,” with a coming issuer race “the way Circle and Tether have really dominated stablecoins”; phase two bridges to Ink, with Xtox pools on Inc., and Kraken CEO Arjun Sethi has interacted with the account.
- The other pick: FWA (“Fake World Assets”), an on-chain gacha on Ethereum mainnet at ~$12M cap where NFT holders can “be the house” and earn yield on deposited Punks and Apes. GMoney frames it as the liquidity sink for gacha mechanics — the way “Poly Market and Koshi” became a buyer of last resort — and it hit top-three Ethereum revenue for three or four straight days; the execution risk is top-of-funnel spins.
- On NFTs: this is a winter, not a death. People are “dunking on NFTs and at the same time collecting Pokemon cards... those are physical NFTs” — the 2020–21 card mania preceded the NFT mania, and the long thesis stands: digitally native kids with money will want to display wealth on-chain, the same lock-in-gains psychology as watches and cars.
- The through-line: in a hyper-unemployment, hyper-gambling world, “position yourselves accordingly — you want to own the casinos.” Avi goes further: “investing is becoming a national security issue for the United States” — AI wealth will make the economy unrecognizable in 10 years, and a large uninvested pool will be “incredibly discontent and cause societal issues.”
- Retail hygiene beneath the degeneracy: hold spot NASDAQ/Bitcoin, cap leveraged perp gambling at 5–10% of the book, and always use stops. Avi's cautionary tale: a wedding guest whose portfolio was entirely on FOMO—basically memecoins, with Bitcoin too—and who was told to buy QQQ. Knowing what NFTs are “and not knowing what QQQ is” was, to Avi, the hilarious combination.
1. NFT winter, but the Pokemon-card crowd is proving the thesis
- GMoney's opener: for six months to a year people have been “dunking on NFTs and at the same time collecting Pokemon cards,” even though “those are NFTs... physical NFTs.” The 2020–21 physical-card mania immediately preceded the NFT mania, and he sees the same collecting psychology at work.
- The long thesis, dating to 2021 when ETH was around $500: “if people are going to make a bunch of money on chain, they're going to want to display it on chain.” The 15-year-old who's digitally native may one day have money and prefer digital collectibles over “the visceral feeling of holding the card”; watches, cars and houses serve the same real-world display-and-lock-in-gains impulse.
- Avi's confession as color: his only NFT is an EtherRock bought for ~$50K, ridden to a $3M position at the 2021 top, now ~$100K — “something I'm probably never going to sell.” GMoney still holds much of his 2021 book: CryptoPunks, his PFP, plus Chromie Squiggles and Art Blocks.
2. Tokenized stocks are the new on-chain demand sink — and Quotrons is the bag
- The project GMoney has been deep in the weeds on: Quotrons, a “one-way ERC-404” — a liquid token that can be irreversibly burned into an NFT, after which trades pay fees in tokenized stock. The floor is up immensely since he bought it, but he treats it as a yield play he does not want to sell: earning yield in tokenized Nvidia is more attractive to him than DeFi-summer Pool 2s, where the asset often had to be sold quickly to lock in gains.
- His bigger call: meme tickers paired with tokenized stocks are “creating the demand sink to bring stocks on chain” — the same answer as asking why dollars need to be on-chain — and the next couple of years could bring “this massive race between all these issuers trying to dominate tokenized stocks the way Circle and Tether have really dominated stablecoins.”
- The setup as pitched: roughly $10M market cap, phase two described as bridging over to Ink and creating Xtox pools on Inc., with fee generation coming from that activity. Kraken CEO Arjun Sethi has interacted with the account — “the convexity is there if you're right and the risk isn't that terrible if you're wrong.”
3. Memecoins: PvP Fortnite culture vs. the buy-and-hold class
- GMoney says he has not really been playing memes and uses very small size when he does: “when somebody decides to sell and maybe I'm in the bathroom... I was the exit liquidity.” After running a trading desk for 10-plus years, the culture is alien — “if somebody used me as exit liquidity, they'd be kicked off the desk” — versus meme traders who treat killing counterparties as a badge of honor, “as if you were playing Fortnite.”
- Avi's counter-frame: memes are onboarding. The FOMO founder told him UGC TikTok campaigns are converting people who “never even bought a stock,” lured by someone's million-dollar P&L. But “there's no way to diligence these things — it's literally just attention and cult,” massively cabal-driven; Avi says the visible winners are scalpers, the lucky and the creators.
- Both prefer PvE conviction, with an honest asterisk. GMoney says they bought Luna at roughly $0.30; Avi says they did exceptionally well, roughly 300x, and sold around $20–40. GMoney later learned that the Chai usage data being promoted was fake. The broader lesson from GMoney: staying power requires a narrative people can genuinely believe in — “nobody's believing in Dogwifhat for three years... it's dead for a reason.”
- Why share alpha at all? Avi distinguishes short-term trades, where listeners can choose whether to take the trade while he is in it, from long-term theses such as HYPE at $30 or ARKG, where “there's so much room for everybody to win.” GMoney adds that publishing ideas invites challenges and new opportunities: “when new information comes out, you need to re-evaluate your thesis... that's literally what investing and trading is.”
4. The hike is coming — and it doesn't matter, because AI capex is national defense
- Avi's roughly year-old framework, which GMoney says he is on board with: “if you view AI as a matter of national defense, which I think the U.S. government does at this point, then there's no slowing that train down... they're going to spend whatever they need to spend for as long as they need to spend in order to beat China.”
- CPI came in line but the expectation of a hike rose. Avi says “Worsh” needs to maintain credibility, so a hike is likely at the next meeting — but “I don't think it lasts long.” The tell was last month's Japanese-yen intervention and Bessent saying he would buy the long end, then doing so a couple of days later, “when the S&P is 5% from all-time highs.” That should happen when markets are down 20–30% and “looking into the abyss.” “The market sniffed them out. That's why gold caught a bid. That's why Bitcoin caught a bid.”
- Avi's devil's-advocate contagion clock: Countrywide-to-Lehman took about two years, while Silicon Valley Bank took about two weeks to settle. “If we have some sort of AI capex contagion, I think they figure it out within a week, probably within 48 hours.” Any eventual response “becomes a populist situation” shaped by public mood — Bear Stearns was “make them pay,” while Lehman became “save the global financial system.”
5. GMoney: CDS spreads are fake; Avi sees Nvidia as a stealth SaaS business
- GMoney entered after crypto ripped and people had, in his view, moved on from AI: Bitcoin had hit $80K about a week earlier, Intel was at $87, and SanDisk was down significantly. Those are his favorite moments to enter. His demand-side thesis is that compute demand will grow so much that companies will keep spending even if rates rise by a percentage point.
- The take GMoney says many people consider “totally nuts”: hyperscaler CDS spreads “are fake... I just don't think they matter.” Google, Microsoft and Facebook credit risk is “basically equivalent to U.S. government credit risk” regardless of how much debt they take on — they are not financial institutions like Lehman and are unlikely to develop a balance-sheet mismatch — so even when spreads widen, he expects them to come back in.
- Avi says last quarter's earnings were strong and argues Nvidia's circular financing could create a residual, capital-light revenue stream: if AI demand continues, Nvidia could receive a percentage of neocloud revenues after financing the initial capex. “That's a SaaS business, kind of,” which could command higher multiples after about two years of consolidation. GMoney tweeted bullish before earnings; Avi bought into earnings and “absolutely ripped that trade.”
6. Own the casinos: FWA, hyper-gambling, and the national-security case for being invested
- FWA (“Fake World Assets”), from the developer Rhynotic on Ethereum mainnet, is an on-chain gacha where users can play or deposit NFTs — “you can be the house” — earning yield on deposited CryptoPunks, Bored Apes and physical-card NFTs. GMoney's frame: it could become “a liquidity sink for all gacha mechanics,” the way “Poly Market and Koshi” became a buyer of last resort on a bet. It ranked top-three in Ethereum revenue for three or four days running; the figure was either $30,000 or $300,000, with $300,000 sounding right, at roughly a $12M cap. Execution now hinges on daily spins: “somebody needs to build FOMO for FWA.”
- The Good Alexander-influenced social frame GMoney borrows: in a world with hyper-unemployment, “we're all going to be hyper-gambling,” perhaps encouraged by the powers that be. “Position yourselves accordingly. You want to own the casinos.” Avi expects everything to become “FOMO-ified” and would tell casinos to put leaderboards on poker and blackjack.
- Avi's bigger claim: “investing is becoming a national security issue for the United States.” AI will make the economy unrecognizable in 10 years; a large uninvested population becomes “incredibly discontent and cause[s] societal issues,” so administrations need to convince people to put their money to work.
- The hygiene coda: keep spot NASDAQ/Bitcoin alongside the gambling, cap leveraged perps at 5–10% of the book, and use stops — GMoney's friend was up 150% day-trading with no stops, prompting: “what happens if it keeps going down?” Avi's wedding encounter seals it: an older guest whose portfolio was all FOMO, clarified as basically memecoins with Bitcoin too, was told to buy QQQ. “The concept of somebody knowing what NFTs are and not knowing what QQQ is” was, to Avi, the hilarious combination.
Full transcript
All right, Powell needs to maintain his credibility, so we've got to hike at the next meeting. But I don't think it lasts long, because why is the U.S. government intervening when the S&P is 5% from all-time highs? You know what I mean? We should be down 20% or 30% from the highs, and we're looking into the abyss, and the market knows—the market sniffed them out.
That's why gold caught a bid. That's why Bitcoin got a bid. At the end of the day, the government will do whatever they need to do to keep the AI capex cycle going because they have to. They view it like they have to win.
We've got a good market update on this Friday and a very special guest. We've got GMoney, who I've actually known for a long time. What's going on? Welcome to the show.
Yeah, how are you doing? Thanks for having me on. Appreciate it.
Oh, dude, I'm great. It's a Friday. It's a beautiful day in New York City. Everything's looking good. We got a good inflation print this morning, so markets are ripping. The Nasdaq is up a percent or so. My positions are looking good. ETH is up 6%.
For those of you who don't know, GMoney is an absolute stud. He originally burst on the scene because of NFTs, but some people don't know this: he actually was a trader for many years, and now he's back in the game. He hosts his own show, I think FOMO Hour? That's what you call it.
Yeah, I host it with Hunter on Tuesday and Thursday mornings. I assume we probably cover a lot of the same topics: places where you can make money, whether it's in TradFi, crypto, or NFTs and stuff like that.
Yeah, but you and I have always talked markets for years now, so it's good to do this on camera for the first time. No, absolutely. It's good to do this on camera. What's funny is we cover basically the exact same stuff, except for the NFT world, which I have no idea about and probably never will.
The only NFT I own is my EtherRock, which I've held literally since the 2021 top. I bought it for around $50,000, rode it up to a $3 million position, and now I think it's trading at around $100,000. It's literally just something I'm probably never going to sell.
But is it going to come back? That's where I wanted to start with you. Are NFTs ever going to come back?
Well, it's funny because over the last 6 months to a year, especially, I've seen a lot of people dunking on NFTs while collecting Pokémon cards at the same time. I'm like, you do realize that those are NFTs, right? They're physical NFTs.
It reminds me a lot of 2020 and 2021, when the physical card market was going nuts. That was right before the NFT market started going nuts. I feel like it's very similar, right? People like to collect things.
To me, the long-term thesis on NFTs was always that at some point, that 15-year-old kid is going to have a ton of money, and he's going to want to buy something that's probably more digital because he's more digitally native than people my age and older, who are like, “Oh, I want to feel the visceral feeling of holding the card.” In reality, it's the same philosophy and the same psychology behind it.
I think NFTs are going through their winter, but again, I think crypto pumps higher—Bitcoin, ETH, SOL, all these things making new all-time highs. I think you recently bought a watch, right? I think you bought a PC.
Well, yeah, I was looking at buying a Patek. It's funny—you know, Justin, I was actually debating him on whether a leather strap is better or a metal strap. He was really heavily on the side of the metal strap, and I was like, “Actually, that's kind of a woman's watch, if you ask me.” That's just my personal opinion. The metal is a woman's watch. It looks beautiful for your girlfriend, but I wouldn't buy it. I'd go for the leather all day.
Fair. I didn't really have an opinion on it, but I thought you were buying one. Again, that whole thought process is: when people want to lock in gains and show off a little bit, what do you do? You buy watches, cars, houses—all these things in the real world.
My original thesis for NFTs in 2021 was that I was really bullish on ETH. At the time, ETH was around $500, and I was like, if people are going to make a bunch of money on-chain, they're going to want to display it on-chain. Sometimes it's just as simple as that.
Do you own any NFTs right now that you're bullish on or that you think are going to do well over the next year or 2? Show your bags.
I still have a ton of the same stuff that I had back then. CryptoPunks, which is my PFP. I own a bunch of Chromie Squiggles and some Art Blocks collections.
I think what I've seen over the last month or so is the rise of the new NFTs 2.0. One of the projects I've been really deep in the weeds on is this thing called Quotron. It's a one-way ERC-404, where it starts off as a liquid token. You can burn the liquid token into an NFT, and then it can't go back to being liquid. As soon as you burn it into an NFT, you receive the trading fees in the form of tokenized stock dividends.
Any time a trade happens, you get paid out in tokenized stock. Stuff like that is really cool because the floor price has gone up immensely since I bought it. But I'm like, this is kind of a yield play. I don't want to sell it, right?
1. The Best Month Onchain Since DeFi Summer
I think you're going to see a lot of these different new constructs come out, which is why I think guys like you and me really loved crypto to begin with. When the composability layer comes out on a permissionless system, people can get really creative and do cool things.
No, I mean, 100%. Basically, the entire reason I got into crypto was to buy drugs off the Silk Road, but a secondary reason that I got into crypto was because it's the freest market that has ever existed in the history of the planet.
The amount of experimentation that you can do within the confines of finance is unprecedented. That leads us to all sorts of fun little activities.
The reality is, most people aren't paying attention day to day, right? They look in from the outside, see something interesting, and skim it. But if you can go deep, if you can really understand what's going on, you can make, one, a ton of money, and, two, also have a ton of fun.
Right. Right. And that's really what drew me into crypto. The second doubling down that I did in 2020, when I saw all this stuff happening, I was just like, “This is awesome.”
Yeah, this is really good stuff. To that point, I feel like the last month has been some of the coolest and most exciting stuff I've seen on-chain, probably since DeFi summer. People are resurrecting these DeFi narratives and protocols that really went nuts in 2020, but now you can actually do this with a tokenized stock.
Being able to do this with a tokenized stock makes it a little more interesting because, if you think about DeFi summer, there were all these Pool 2s where you were getting insanely high yield because you needed to sell the asset as soon as you could in order to lock in gains. Now I'm earning yield in tokenized Nvidia, and I'm like, “All right, cool. I think Nvidia has upside, so I want to hold tokenized Nvidia.” I think it's really interesting.
No, it is. One thing that's been really fun recently is these meme-fi tokens that are coming out, where people have paired memes with actual tokenized stocks, which has really never been possible before, mainly because we didn't have tokenized stocks. Are you playing any of this? What are your thoughts here?
I haven't really been playing it. I've been watching it. I'm not necessarily a memecoin guy, and if I do it, I'm doing really small size because I just can't get to holding conviction on these types of things.
I can definitely do narrative investing and story trading, but with memes, when somebody decides to sell and maybe I'm in the bathroom or I've stepped away from my desk and missed my exit, I'm just like, “All right, well, I was the exit liquidity,” which is really tough for me.
I do like looking at all these ticker pairs, though, and I think they're hilarious. To me, this is creating the demand sink to bring stocks on-chain, because for the longest time people have been like, “Why do you need stocks on-chain?” For the same reason you could ask, “Why do you need dollars on-chain?”
I do think that over the next couple of years, we're going to see this massive race between all these issuers trying to dominate tokenized stocks, the way Circle and Tether have really dominated stablecoins. I think it's a cool new open space with a ton of upside.
Yeah, no, 100% agree on that. I viewed these memecoins as onboarding points for people to come in and trade crypto. That's how I've always viewed memecoins, for some reason or another. It's easier to convince people to open a wallet and put $100 in if they think they can 30x it. Hopefully, there's some level of conversion between the people who do that and then end up sticking around. So, they're a good entry point.
I talked to the FOMO founder last week, on Friday. He was our last guest on this Friday market update. What he said is that they're running some pretty crazy UGC campaigns. For those of you who don't know, this is basically short-form video on TikTok from small accounts that are talking about FOMO.
2. There's No Way To Diligence A Meme Coin
Through that process, he's onboarded a ton of people who have literally never invested before. These are people saying, “I never even bought a stock. I've never bought crypto, but I'm going to go on FOMO because I saw somebody make $1 million.” Hopefully, some percentage of those people will come on and actually convert, and that's how we get fresh money in. But generally, this thing is just a lottery ticket at the end of the day, right?
Yeah. I think Rasmer put out this video. He put out this hilarious video. I like the guy.
Yeah.
I like the guy, but he put out this video where he's like, “This is how you diligence a memecoin.” I'm like, “Dude, actually, there's no way to diligence these things.”
It's literally just attention and cult.
I mean, yes, but it's also massively cabal-driven. I don't know—maybe you have a different take—but really, the only people I've ever seen win on memecoins are the people who really get in and scalp the hell out of them, the people who get lucky, or the people who create them.
Right?
To your point, a lot of them have used this analogy, and I'm like, yeah, that kind of makes sense: They see it as very PvP, as if you were playing Fortnite. It's like, “I'm going to get you to buy this. All right, cool—I'm going to sell it on you.” They see it as a badge of honor: “Oh, yeah, I killed you.”
I come from—dude, I ran a trading desk for 10-plus years, and if somebody used me as exit liquidity, they'd be kicked off the desk. You know what I mean? In general, it's so hard to make money. Why would you want to share information with people who are actively trying to make you lose money for exit liquidity?
So, it's a very different mentality from where I come from. You have your circle of homies; you want to share the alpha with them. You don't want to say, “Hey, buy this so you can sell into it.” But I guess that's their mentality: They view it as more of a Fortnite-type thing. If that's the way you view it, then I think that style of trading makes total sense.
Maybe it makes sense in a very choppy market, but in crypto bull markets, you want to buy. I mean, we're from the classes where you buy and hold, right? Buying AXS at $6 and selling it at $120, you know what I mean?
Believe in something—actually, just believe in something. Although sometimes what you believe in ends up being a complete scam, and that's okay. It happens; that's just what you deal with. I'll give you a great example: I really believed in Luna. This is crazy, but we bought Luna at $0.30.
Well, no, we did exceptionally well. I mean, I think we 300x'ed on this thing. We didn't sell at the top; we sold at around $40, or maybe $20—whatever it was.
But we did exceptionally well on it because they were publishing all this fake data on an app called Chai. They were saying, “Guys, look—lots of people in Korea are actually using this. You should buy into it.” I didn't really uncover the scam until later.
Once they had the buy-in and the burn-and-mint mechanism with Luna and UST, and it became too big, we had to get out. But the beauty of crypto, at the end of the day, is that experiments can run up extremely high. Really, the things that run the best and have any amount of staying power are the things that have at least some sort of narrative you can attach to them, so that people can genuinely believe in them, right?
Nobody's believing in Dogwifhat for 3 years. It's dead now for a reason: There's no real narrative there, right?
3. Why Give Away Your Alpha?
And that's why we always say in crypto that there's PvP and PvE, and really what you want to be playing is PvE. You raise a very good point. A lot of the time, people come to me—and probably to you as well—and ask, “If you're an investor, why are you hosting a show? What's the point of telling people your alpha? Why would you ever do that?”
The answer is that most of the things we talk about on this show are either short-term trades that we're in, and it's your prerogative to take that trade. As a short-term trade, it doesn't really matter as long as I'm in the position.
And on the long-term stuff—the things we talk about most of the time, my thesis for the next 3, 6, 12, or 18 months—there's so much room for everybody to win.
Right.
Right. If I believe in HYPE at $30 and I convince all the listeners of this show to ape into HYPE at $30, or if I believe in biotech changing the future through the use of AI, that's a massive market, right?
Every single person on this show could go buy ARKG, which I've been talking about for a long time. Everybody can win together because this is a genuine long-term thesis. That's really what we try to do on the show: Talk about things that people can win on and also provide frameworks, right? I want you, as a listener, to become better at trading and investing at the end of the day.
Yeah, no, I agree. I'll add one more thing about why I've really enjoyed it—whether through video or by creating posts and putting my thoughts out there on X. It starts conversations, and I could be introduced to a new opportunity I didn't know existed: Somebody says, “If you like this, you'll like that.”
It also challenges my framework. People say, “Hey, I think you're wrong.” To me, that's probably one of the most important things. I know a lot of people get a ton of shit on the timeline when they change positions or change their thesis on something. It's like, bro, that's literally what investing and trading is, right?
When new information comes out, you need to reevaluate your thesis, and then maybe that means you reevaluate your position. You're constantly doing that and monitoring risk. I think it's super valuable, even for me, in the form of thesis management and development, and in fostering conversations that I otherwise might not have.
100%. It's a constant refrain on the show. I tell everybody, “I'm not your dad. I'm not going to be there every day, every second. I appear twice a week in the ether on the internet to give you my frameworks and thoughts in this moment.”
That's also why I don't often say, “Well, I'm long this, and this is my…” I'm not giving people my complete trades often because they change, right?
Right. So, giving people frameworks is so much more valuable. It's the teach-a-man-to-fish mentality.
But apart from that, it is really fun.
I do love it. My favorite thing in the world is when people say I'm wrong, but then they give me a reason why I'm wrong and I can learn from it. My least favorite thing in the world is when people call me a dirty Jew. But, yeah, there's a give-and-take on X. There's a give-and-take, you know.
Yeah, for sure.
For sure.
But I do think, dude, props to you and to anybody else who puts themselves out there, right? When you put out a thesis, whether right or wrong, you're being vulnerable by sharing. People generally don't like to be wrong, especially when you're trading. The more right you are, the more money you make.
4. AI Is National Defense: Why The Hike Won't Last
So, when people try to call you out, I appreciate it, because maybe you're thinking of something I didn't think of. I appreciate that because now I can say, “I didn't think about that as a risk. Now I do. Thank you for that.”
Yeah. Speaking of things we haven't thought of, I want to talk a little bit about the market itself.
Yeah, we had this CPI print that just came out. It basically came in line with expectations, but rates—the expectation of a rate hike—is now higher than it was before. Markets are doing okay.
What’s your take on where we are? I think a lot of people are panicked about whether we’re entering a hike cycle, whether that’s going to hurt the markets, how to position, and whether crypto is going to blow up. What’s your process for attacking this?
My framework that I’ve been operating under for close to a year at this point—I think about a year—is that if you view AI as a matter of national defense, which I think the U.S. government does at this point, then there’s no slowing that train down. They’re going to spend whatever they need to spend for as long as they need to spend in order to beat China.
If that’s the case, then any type of blip that we see—and I think maybe we probably saw it a little bit last month with the Japanese yen intervention, and then Bessent saying that he was going to buy the long end of the curve and then do it a couple days later—then that’s where I think gold and Bitcoin really caught a bid.
So now it’s like, all right, Worsh needs to maintain his credibility, so we’ve got a hike at the next meeting. But I don’t think it lasts long, because why the is the US government doing intervention when the S&P is 5% from all-time highs? That should be when we’re down 20% or 30% from the highs and looking into the abyss, thinking, “Oh my God, the world economy is about to implode. We need to do this.” They’re doing that now, which kind of tells you—and the market knows it. The market sniffed them out. That’s why gold caught a bid. That’s why Bitcoin got a bid.
Even though we’re probably going to get a hike at the next meeting now because it seems certain, I don’t think it’s a long cycle. At the end of the day, the government will do whatever they need to do to keep the AI capex cycle going because they have to. They view it like they have to win. That’s been my framework for the last year, and I feel like it’s been playing out that way.
No, I’m totally on board. I’ve actually been super bullish on AI. Basically, once crypto started ripping—I think Bitcoin hit $80K like a week ago at this point—Intel was trading at $87 a share. People had, in my opinion, moved on completely from the AI trade. SanDisk was down a ton. Those are always my favorite moments to enter into a market, because I actually hadn’t thought about it in the way that you just laid it out: the government needs to make sure that the AI capex trade continues.
I thought about it more from the perspective that the AI capex trade will continue because the demand for compute is going to grow tremendously. So these are actually 2 complementary narratives for why it’s going to grow. My perspective was that demand is going to grow so much, and people are going to be willing to pay so much money that even if rates go up a percent, we’re still going to see capex. We’re still going to see that spend.
I agree with you. I also think that, because I feel like you’re probably deep in the weeds on using AI as well, if you use this stuff as a power user, you’re like, “Oh my God, I want—I need more of it, as much as possible, to do more.” I’m super bullish on the use cases, and even as more agents start getting used, we just need more compute for all of it.
But again, trying to play devil’s advocate, what happens if it does slow down? My thesis ultimately is that the government can’t afford to slow down because, if you look at the bailout processes over the last 20 years, the financial crisis—from when Countrywide went under to when Lehman went under—was about 2 years. Then you look at what happened with Silicon Valley Bank 4 years ago, and it was about 2 weeks before the contagion started to settle.
If we have some sort of AI capex contagion, I think they figure it out within a week, probably within 48 hours.
But what does it even look like? What is AI capex? These companies—the amount of debt that they’ve taken on is minuscule compared to their market cap.
I don’t even know what that would look like. Again, just playing devil’s advocate, people are like, “Oh, the CDS is blowing out,” and I’m like, “Okay, fair.” But these guys generate so much cash. It’s not that big of a deal. They’re generating cash on top of that. It’s not like they’re not seeing an ROI on it.
5. The CDS Spreads Are Fake
Again, playing devil’s advocate, I don’t know what it would look like if leverage grew 5 or 10 times from here, because I think at that point it becomes a populist situation. It’s whatever the crowd wants, right? When Bear Stearns went under, people were like, “Oh, we have to show them. Make them pay.” Then when Lehman went under, it was like, “Well, we have to save the global financial system.” It really depends on what the mood of the population is at that time.
I’ve got a take here: I think the CDS spreads are fake. I just don’t think that they matter. I’ve talked with a lot of people about this, and they think I’m totally nuts.
Basically, I think the credit risk of these companies—Google, Microsoft, Facebook—is basically equivalent, regardless of how much debt they take out, to U.S. government credit risk. People look at that spread and go, “Oh, wow, it’s blowing out. These companies are getting slightly more risky.” I think that it’s basically always going to come back in.
These are not financial institutions. They’re not employing mass leverage in any way, shape, or form. They’re not Lehman. They’re not going to have a balance-sheet mismatch. It’s very, very unlikely for any of that to happen. So even when those spreads widen, you kind of know that they’re going to come back in, in my personal opinion. It’s this weird dynamic where I just don’t think they matter. I do appreciate that you’re playing devil’s advocate. I thought this was a fun, interesting side point that I’ve been thinking about.
But also, when you look at their earnings last quarter, everybody’s numbers were great. I’m like, invest more and more in AI capex, because your ROI on that is going to be insane. So, yeah, things like that. I’m so bullish on Nvidia here.
I love to hear it. Are you bullish on Nvidia?
Yeah, super bullish. I bought into earnings basically, making that bet. I saw you tweet that out as well, so props. You actually put out a tweet literally before earnings. I was like, “I’m bullish on this thing.” I went in and absolutely ripped that trade.
The crazy thing is that everybody’s bringing up the circular financing and all this stuff, but I think Nvidia is putting itself in a spot where, if AI demand continues to grow, which we think it will, they’re basically going to have this residual business where they’re getting a percentage of revenues because they financed all the capex to start.
Now all these neoclouds have a piece of that—they have a residual. All of a sudden, Nvidia is going to have this capital-light revenue stream, and I’m like, dude, that’s a SaaS business, kind of, right? The multiples on that will probably be way higher. It’s also consolidated for about 2 years, so I think it’s setting up.
That’s true. What do you think? Are you more bullish on crypto here or more bullish on AI? How are you allocating capital right now?
I’m bullish on both for different reasons. I’d say in the first half of the year, I was focused a lot more on TradFi, on traditional markets, because I think that’s where all the action was. But over the last 3 weeks, I’ve been spending more time on-chain because I think there’s been a lot of cool innovation there.
These things also start at really low market caps, so you can take a small stack and get a couple multiples on it pretty quickly, as opposed to something like Micron, Nvidia, or Nebius. I’m bullish on all of them, but I have long-term calls on them. Am I going to 10x that in a month? No. But I do think they go up significantly over time.
So I’m bullish on both. It’s almost like a barbell, I guess you would call it, even though they’re probably kind of the same trade.
6. Be The House: Inside Fake World Assets
That makes sense. I want to dive into that. What’s going on on-chain that you’re looking at? What do you like right now?
A lot of the things that got me looking on-chain were fake world assets. Are you familiar with real-world assets?
No.
Give us a spiel.
Yeah. So, it’s on Ethereum mainnet. It was started by a developer called Rhynotic, and he’s done a bunch of these projects in the past. What he basically developed was an on-chain gacha mechanism.
I think most gacha mechanics are kind of like blind boxes, right? Like pack ripping. You pay $25 for a pack, you rip it, and you see what the card is. It’s worth anywhere from $10 to $1,000 or whatever, depending on the odds, right? Then you can instantly sell it back to the site at a 10% or 15% discount.
What Fake World Assets did was take that concept but apply it to NFTs. You could play it, but you could also deposit them, right? So you can be the house as well. People started depositing NFTs on it. There are CryptoPunks in there, some high-value NFTs, Bored Apes, and stuff like that.
What I think is really interesting about that is that he built out the protocol layer for—I mean, if it plays out the way I think it will, it basically becomes a liquidity sink for all gacha mechanics, right? The same way that Poly Market and Koshi became the buyer of last resort on a bet because their books were so big, you can lay off risk onto that gacha protocol.
He built that out, right? So if you have Collector’s Crypt, VeVe, or Courtyard, you can put those NFTs—those physical cards—into Fake World Assets and earn yield on them. Because, basically, the odds are—well, I mean, if your thing gets pulled, you’re kind of cooked, right?
Well, you get money for it—whatever you earn over that time, right? So it’s based on the odds, right? You play the odds that you’re going to make the money back with some sort of return after that.
But to me, it’s cool because I wasn’t able to get any—I wasn’t able to utilize any of that cash that I had in NFTs for years. So I’m like, all right, cool. I can put these NFTs up as assets and earn yield on them. I think what he’s been doing is really cool.
He built out the protocol layer. Now he has to focus on getting more spins, because spins drive daily revenue. Even last week or 2 weeks ago, he was in the top 3 for revenue generation on Ethereum for 3 or 4 days in a row.
That’s pretty solid.
I think it might have been three. It’s either $30,000 or $300,000. $300,000 sounds right, but—
That’s what you guys need to know.
Yeah. The market cap right now is $12 million. So if he can focus on getting—
Maybe I’ll just buy this thing live on stream.
Yeah. Top-of-funnel distribution—I think it could become a massive thing. I’ve been pounding the table that somebody needs to build FOMO for FWA, so that my friend who knows nothing about crypto—
7. The $3 Million Ether Rock & Are NFTs Coming Back?
If you view crypto as a giant casino floor, there are tons of games, right? Memecoins are one game. Protocol investing is another game. Gacha is another game, and that’s more of a casual thing, right? With memecoins, you can make a 10,000x in a couple of hours, but if you take your finger off the screen for one second, you might lose it all.
There are people who want to do more casual gaming. They want to spend $25 and maybe hit the jackpot. The odds aren’t as much in their favor, and it’s not a skill-based thing. I think that’s where gacha falls. That’s what we’ve seen with a ton of the Pokémon stuff and all the trading-card stuff that’s been taking a lot of mind share in the real world. I think eventually that stuff comes on-chain.
I think what he’s doing there is really cool. Right now, the execution lies in whether they can get top-of-funnel distribution to get more spins per day. I think it's 12 or 13 million. When I last checked this morning, it was $12 million, and to me—
I’m looking at it. It’s $12 million right now. I mean, that’s pretty low.
Yeah.
Honestly, for this type of thing, I agree. By the way, I have a fear that everything is going to become FOMO-ified. I was thinking of calling a few casinos and telling them, “Hey, guys, you need to put a leaderboard up for each one of your games—a leaderboard for poker, a leaderboard for blackjack.”
I actually think that is the core of what’s driving volume on FOMO. When you talk to people who are trading there, it’s literally just, “Oh my God, you can actually make money on these things. Let me go in and figure it out.” You see these large P&Ls, and it’s totally nuts. I think basically everyone is going to look at that and say, “We probably need to do this as well.” More than that, create a social environment.
Right.
8. Investing Is A National Security Issue
Well, I think even to that point, I know you’ve had good Alexander on once or twice, and he influences a lot of my thinking. In a world with hyper-unemployment, we’re all going to be hyper-gambling, right? This is probably going to be encouraged by the powers that be for us to be focused on. Position yourselves accordingly. You want to own the casinos.
Yeah, 100%. I’ve said this before, and I genuinely mean this: investing is becoming a national security issue for the United States.
What am I talking about? I’m saying that we’re entering a world where, in the next 10 years, there’s going to be an incredible amount of wealth produced by companies like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Facebook because of AI. We’re not going to recognize our economy in 10 years.
If you’re not invested in the market, you’re going to be left so far behind. If there’s a large pool of people who aren’t invested in the markets, they’re going to be incredibly discontent and cause societal issues. So it becomes a national security issue for the administration, and for subsequent administrations, to convince—
Every single American needs to put their money to work somehow, some way.
Right. I do think that, genuinely, these products are a gateway to get people in. This is just going back to what we were saying at the beginning. This is a gateway to get people in.
If you’re listening to this, make sure that even if you’re gambling on memecoins or trading crypto on perps, you have spot positions as well. That way, just in case you blow up—God forbid—we all know that you’re an amazing trader and you’re never going to lose. But, God forbid, you hit a bad spot, you have some portion of what’s to come.
You are invested in the NASDAQ, you are invested in Bitcoin, and you are invested in the future, because I genuinely think it’s important. Most people, at the end of the day, GMoney, are going to be better off just sitting and parking their capital in stuff that’s going to perform well over time.
Yeah. Also, don’t use leverage. That’s what I would tell people if you’re not actively trading.
It’s funny. I ran into a friend yesterday who was telling me he started day trading a month ago, and he was like, “Oh, I’m up 150%.” He said, “The market goes down and then it goes up.” I’m like, “But what happens if it keeps going down?” He’s like, “I don’t know,” because he doesn’t use stops.
My one piece of advice to you, since you’re trading with leverage, is that you need stops. I’ve seen it a million times where people trade on leverage, don’t use stops, get cocky, and blow up. Just stay in the game. Stay alive. I think that’s always the name of the game.
100%. Dude, I was at a wedding last weekend. I was at a wedding in Mystic, Connecticut, which, by the way, is a very cute town with a wonderful aquarium. If you’re ever there, go see the harbor seals. They’re very cute.
But I met this guy who will remain unnamed—an older guy—and he found out that I was an investor and started asking me for investment advice. Then he showed me his portfolio, and his portfolio was all FOMO. I was like, “What the fuck am I looking at? What else do you own?” He goes, “This is it.”
It was in that moment that I realized this is why I do this show in many ways: to educate you that you also need to have a broader portfolio. You can gamble on these things. If you want to trade perps on leverage, take 5% or 10% of your book and do that. See if you can run it up, but no more.
I’m not going to sit here and pretend I’ve never done that. Of course I’ve done that. My friends and I, back in 2021, used to host Bybit parties where we’d all load our accounts with $1,000, get pissed drunk, go on 100x leverage, and the last one standing got everyone else’s balance. It was great. It was fun. It was a good time.
But treat it like it is: if you’re using excess leverage, if you’re gambling on coins, it’s a good, fun time.
Yes, you can make money, but you have to be careful with it. That was totally surreal to me. It's a very nice wedding, too—smart people. That was great. Hopefully, if you're listening to this, I hope he's not listening.
Let's put it like this: was it all memecoins, or was it normal stocks? What was it?
No, no. It was basically just memecoins, but there was Bitcoin in there as well, which is fine.
But I told him to buy QQQ, and he goes, “I've heard of that.” I was like, “Okay, good.” I just find it hilarious—the concept of somebody knowing what NFTs are and not knowing what QQQ is is the most hilarious combination ever.
That's pretty good.
But yeah, it was amazing. I don't know. Before we wrap up the whole thing, I want to ask: what are your most controversial ideas? Let's get some clips and ideas.
Man, I don't know. You're putting me on the spot. I can just tell you what I'm buying.
Yeah, just tell me what you're buying.
So there's FWA. I think Quotrons is probably my biggest bag on-chain right now, and I'm super bullish on it. I think, for me, Quotrons is a really good play. Basically, what I described to you at the top of the show was kind of their phase 1. Phase 2 is that they're bridging over to Ink. They're creating Xtox pools on Inc., and a lot of the fee generation is going to be coming from that on a go-forward basis. So, like I said, I'm very bullish on tokenized equities on-chain, and I think quotons is like a really cool way to play that and a very interesting way to play that. Arjun Sethi, the CEO of Kraken, has interacted with the account, so it seems like Ink is very bullish on what Quotons is doing itself.
I kind of love that. I love these little secrets: maybe the CEO of Kraken is going to buy this. That intrigue is good for driving volumes. One of my friends, this guy named Gamchan, was talking about Tibber because the Robinhood CEO has apparently interacted with it. I'm like, all right—
With Tibber? No, that—
Was something like that.
The token from Rivet Capital.
Oh, right.
The Malcus [?] token. Mickey Mouse token. Yeah. So, again, all this inside baseball stuff, but the thing I like about Quotrons—I think it's a $10 million market cap, right? So it's super cheap. I think the convexity is there if you're right, and the risk isn't that terrible if you're wrong.
All right. Well, yeah, we heard it here first. GMoney, this was awesome. We have to do this again. Just keep ripping it.
Absolutely. We'll do it whenever you let me know.
Amazing, dude. Thanks again. Appreciate it.
For having me. Nothing said on the ThousandX podcast is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice or necessarily the views of 1KX Media. Our hosts, guests, and the 1KX team may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.