Taiki: The Trading Chad
Jordi AlexanderJustin BramTaiki MaedaDim Selk
Jordi’s highest-conviction trade remains Zcash, with the panel framing $1,000 and 3%-5% of Bitcoin’s market cap as plausible upside markers. Jordi says he is long Zcash and has never been this bullish on a coin. He thinks moving from roughly 1.5% of Bitcoin’s market cap toward 3% is easier than advancing beyond it; Dim considers 5% possible. The tension is explicit: privacy, quantum-resistance and “insurance” against a Bitcoin failure support the thesis, yet the panel also calls Zcash a “pure trading asset” driven by psychology, game theory and unrealized gains.
Jordi’s Zcash conviction is unusually concentrated but not presented as infallible. He compares it with his earlier Fartcoin conviction, admits he was too convinced about Fartcoin and says his position size reflects his belief. Taiki recalls that several earlier ETH/DeFi trades did not work. Justin’s holder-quality argument is that Naval, Balaji, Mert and similar committed holders may be less eager to cash out after making a few million.
The trenches are alive, but tokenized-stock meme coins look more like a cultural bridge than a valuation breakthrough. Pairing a meme with a stock does not inherently make the meme more valuable, yet it gives stock-native users a recognizable route on-chain. Public leaderboards amplify both excitement and fragility: one visible account reportedly moved from roughly $26 million-$27 million to somewhere around $13 million-$18 million, reinforcing Jordi’s view that public leaderboards can end badly.
Hunter Biden’s Laptop token became the episode’s clearest case study in how launch mechanics can destroy an otherwise tradeable narrative. Roughly $5,000 of initial liquidity reportedly let demand send the token to $2.39 and a momentary $316 billion market cap—“bigger than BlackRock”—before a 99.9% collapse. The panel’s remedy was orderly price discovery, potentially beginning around a $100 million market cap, rather than treating a malformed opening print as fair value.
Bitcoin’s bounce near $77,000 did not convince the panel that the bear market was definitively over. Jordi set an alert above roughly $83,000 and considered buying live, but later said he had not placed the order. Justin rejected the categorical claim that the bear market was over, noting Bitcoin was still about 35% below its all-time high and assigning roughly 50/50 odds to a return to the high-$50,000s. The constructive catalysts are equity returns finally stalling enough to release capital elsewhere and a debasement narrative that weakens the dollar and restores bids to Bitcoin and gold.
Altcoin exposure is selective rather than indiscriminate: ETH, Worldcoin, VVV and Lighter have identifiable catalysts, while HYPE’s valuation demands more income. The Worldcoin setup rests on OpenAI blocks becoming scarce in private markets, Anthropic exposure being more readily offered, and the new model “Astra” being described as widely used; the speakers explicitly acknowledge that any presentation date and token implications remain uncertain. HYPE was attractive to one speaker around $55 but harder to buy near $80 amid large upcoming unlocks, low 1%-2% staking economics and a need for more income.
The clearest relative-value argument is that BNB and Lighter may be underpriced against HYPE’s social premium. Jordi is long Lighter and cites Vlad’s Washington relationships and the project’s monetization path. BNB’s roughly $100 billion fully diluted value sits near HYPE despite Binance sometimes processing about $100 billion of perps per day—around 10 times Hyperliquid. The counterweight is important: BNB’s alleged “buybacks” were described as burns from already allocated reserves rather than straightforward open-market purchases.
1. Zcash has become Jordi’s conviction trade—and public P&L makes the risk impossible to hide
Jordi dislikes having perp positions visible on a public leaderboard because such records “always end badly,” invoking the FTX and Alex Wice era. The irony is that his positioning is simple enough to summarize: “Obviously, I’m long Zcash.”
His calibration is unusually candid. Jordi compares the conviction with his Fartcoin-era enthusiasm, admits he was too convinced about Fartcoin and says his position size reflects the belief. Taiki recalls that several earlier ETH/DeFi trades did not work, so the call is concentrated, not offered as proof of a perfect record.
Naval supplied the memorable catalyst: “The only asset in crypto I’m interested in is this.” Justin’s holder-quality argument was that Naval-, Balaji- and Mert-type holders may be less likely to convert everything into paper wealth after making a few million, giving Zcash a potentially more durable holder base.
The technical case is insurance against Bitcoin: privacy is native, Justin argued that Zcash addresses Bitcoin’s quantum problem more directly, and Jordi framed it as an asset that could work if Bitcoin failed badly. Yet the trading case remains brutally reflexive—“pure psychology,” game theory and group dynamics rather than unquestioned fundamental value.
2. The valuation map runs from $1,000 Zcash to a 5% share of Bitcoin
Jordi treats Zcash as an alternative store of value currently worth roughly 1.5% of Bitcoin. Moving from 1% to 3% could be comparatively easy; progressing from 3% toward 4% becomes harder as early holders distribute.
The panel’s previously stated price objective was $1,000, while Dim’s relative-value marker is 5% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization. These are targets, not certainties: the speakers expect violent overshoots and drawdowns because excitement can carry the asset far above any stable valuation anchor.
At the discussed price, Zcash was framed as a top-10-scale asset, sitting around tenth place, behind TRON and near a $20 billion figure. The panel estimated approximately $14 billion of unrealized P&L had been created, making higher average entry prices important for another sustainable leg.
On-chain activity is the rebuttal to the claim that nobody uses Zcash, though the speakers do not pretend every token is moving. Their more modest claim is that observable usage appears to rise with the rally and that deep declines have still produced stability and active trading as the asset changes hands.
3. Tokenized-stock memes are a distribution bridge, not automatic intrinsic value
Dim’s trenches report was modest: he said he had made new friends and participated in the games, but also said making money mattered more, believed he had lost money and did not take the losses too seriously. His favorite specimen was a Mike Tyson meme coin that began near $200,000, reached roughly $2 million, then died.
The panel contrasted that with a fly-brain meme reportedly attached to lab work recreating a fly’s neurons. It briefly reached about $100 million before fading. GOAT was treated as a different, earlier cycle whose Truth Terminal connection had supplied more of the original novelty.
Robinhood-style stock-and-meme pairings could still matter culturally. Stock-native users already understand GME-like speculation, and an on-chain venue lets them combine a familiar equity with a meme. The panel’s pushback was decisive: denomination or pairing “doesn’t make it more valuable,” just as quoting a meme in USDC or USDT does not create fundamentals.
Visible leaderboards intensify the sport. The episode’s sharp example was UniPcs, whose displayed value reportedly peaked around $26 million-$27 million before dropping into a debated $13 million-$18 million range; the precise figure was uncertain, but the reversal was the point.
4. Laptop’s $316 billion print was a liquidity failure, not price discovery
Hunter Biden’s Laptop token reportedly opened with only about $5,000 of liquidity. Demand pushed it to $2.39 and an implied $316 billion market capitalization—“bigger than BlackRock”—before the chart produced what the panel called a Christmas tree or Everest peak.
Snipers arrived as soon as the contract address became public, while airdrop recipients later had an opportunity to sell at absurd valuations. The panel recalled Substack users unloading roughly $500,000 apiece, illustrating how the malformed pool created extreme exit opportunities.
The 99.9% drawdown is optically devastating, but the panel argued that an accidental opening valuation does not prove the token deserved zero. An organic start around a $100 million market cap, with the price managed properly before wider trading, was offered as a better approach.
The moral criticism also drew resistance. Large accounts that routinely trade meme coins cannot convincingly act as morality police only for this launch: “Everyone else does the same thing.” That defense does not make Laptop good; it rejects selective outrage as analysis.
5. “Pre-Rich” turns the meme-stock pairing into a deliberately disclosed experiment
The panel floated pairing a “Pre-Rich” coin with Prenetics, whose IM8 all-in-one supplement and David Beckham association provide an existing consumer narrative. The pitch leans into crypto’s psychology—“we’re all pre-rich”—rather than pretending the token represents equity.
One speaker said they had been discussing an on-chain version with Robinhood and warned that an unofficial contract would be a rug. The idea remained under consideration, not an announced launch. Suggested holder benefits included free supplements; Justin separately floated directing proceeds toward cancer research or an AI laboratory working on health.
The incentives remained unresolved. Justin said he was not trying to make money, then allowed that he might make a little, while noting that his stock holdings could benefit if the underlying stock rose. The episode leaves this as an experiment and proposal, not a completed product.
6. Bitcoin’s $77,000 bounce needs confirmation above $83,000
Bitcoin traded around $77,777 during the recording, prompting Jordi to consider a small live purchase. He set an alert above approximately $83,000 but later said he had not actually placed the order.
With Bitcoin still described as roughly 35% below its all-time high, Justin did not see enough pain or forced selling to declare a full reset. A revisit to the high-$50,000s remained approximately a 50/50 possibility, even as the immediate tape improved. Taiki took the opposing view that the bull market had returned.
Two conditions could change the regime. First, equities must stop behaving like effortless daily money so investors search elsewhere for returns. Second, debasement must become the dominant macro conversation, because that discussion tends to bring bids to Bitcoin alongside gold.
CPI was described as in line, while Jordi expected a rate increase and cited roughly 17% uncertainty around no change. A hike raises the opportunity cost of holding gold and Bitcoin, but Dim argued that long-end money printing and efforts to reduce long-end rates could still weaken the dollar—ultimately constructive for scarce narrative assets, with Zcash the more speculative beneficiary.
7. AI-linked coins have catalysts, but the panel keeps the inference separate from the evidence
ETH’s recent bid puzzled the group. Tom Lee was suggested as one possible buyer, perhaps deploying another roughly $500 million toward a stated 5% objective, but the attribution remained explicitly uncertain: “Is it him? I’m not sure.”
The Worldcoin thesis begins in private markets: OpenAI blocks were said to have become difficult to find, while holders were more eager to sell Anthropic exposure after “Astra” gained visible usage. The panel inferred that OpenAI was winning; it did not present the secondary-market anecdotes as conclusive proof.
Worldcoin also has a hinted fourth-quarter presentation, though no date was announced. The speakers said the team understands that a token going to zero would hurt the brand. VVV, meanwhile, was discussed around $25.29; some users reportedly liked accessing models through its product, though others did not want to connect to it.
8. Lighter and BNB are the relative-value trades against HYPE
Jordi is long Lighter and likes Vlad’s Washington relationships and the project’s path ahead. The panel also cited Lighter’s monetization strategy, RWA listings and liquidity as reasons it could compare favorably with HYPE.
HYPE still receives exceptional marks for Jeff’s building ability, product quality and community: “maybe the best builder in crypto.” The objection is price. Large unlocks were said to be coming within months, staking yield was described around 1%-2% and one speaker who liked HYPE around $55 was not a buyer in the $80s without more income.
BNB is the larger contrarian call. Binance was described as building a significant RWA venue with deep liquidity and strong volumes, while tokenized U.S. stocks can export dollar claims to savers in places such as Nigeria or India without relying on local banks or brokers—stablecoins as layer one, dollar assets as layer two.
The trade was framed around roughly $600 as a floor, about $730 at the recording and $900 as an attractive objective. Binance perps can sometimes reach $100 billion daily, around 10 times Hyperliquid, yet BNB’s fully diluted value sits near HYPE’s. The caveat: reserve burns were described as “not real buybacks.”
Full transcript
Okay, friends, we're live. What a crazy market. This is exciting—good and bad, with a lot of interesting things happening. It's great to be speaking with you again. Let's do that. Let's start, Justin.
1. Chad Taiki
GM, everyone. Episode 103. It's been too long—it's been a week. Taiki, before we get started, what's going on? Is “Chadki” going to be your new name? How is it? What is Taiki's new name?
People are calling me Chadki here and there. I don't like it. This is normal, though. It's a top signal, isn't it? Even my TS hasn't sold, so it's a normal top signal.
Taiki, did you get double-jaw surgery? If you did, you look good. Do you think it worked?
Actually, I don't know. I don't know. I've considered it. Maybe I should give up. Let's get it tested and see. Maybe I won't do double-jaw surgery after all.
What else? Buccal fat removal. Do you like it?
Oh, yeah. Buccal fat removal.
Jordi, too. Both Dim and I are in the appearance-maxing camp, you know.
I'm not. For me, my favorite thing is to eat, and sometimes I gain weight. I'm really not doing that.
2. Max Long Zcash
Okay, your PnL is increasing, so let's talk about it. First of all, you have a public wallet somewhere, right? This is millions. What is the public aspect of the trading? Can you explain it exactly?
No. Everyone, it's in Phobos, but I have an airdrop like a farmer, right? I do all my perp trading in various places, so the leaderboards are all over the place. But I don't have one. Honestly, I don't like it.
I don't like the idea of having a public leaderboard for someone. It always seems like it will end badly. Think about FTX and Alex Wice's days. After that, we'll see.
That's scary, isn't it?
Yes. I mean, obviously, I'm the best. I'm long Zcash, so I'm very bullish. If it breaks $1,000, only unprepared people will make some ridiculous moves and sell, I think.
Usually, I'm super bullish when my goals are very high, as was the case with Fartcoin. Then we're more than 50% below my goals—2x down—and it starts rising again. At that point, I'm basically round-tripping. Compared to you, I'm much more convinced.
In the early days, your conviction was number one. Those were golden days. Fartcoin has had a little more of that. Was it the ETH period? You were reducing your ETH exposure during the DeFi winter, when DeFi things were bad.
Looking back, many of those trades didn't work. But in this business, where does your conviction rank? You have to be objective, because you had Fartcoin. Where does it rank?
Oh, my God. To be honest, I was too convinced about Fartcoin. That's why I started scaling out so aggressively. With Ethereum, I feel more guilty about shorting it. My position size reflects that.
I think this is comparable to Fartcoin. Fartcoin and Zcash are trending. Which is better? There's no simple answer. Zcash is better for longs.
Troy says, “Have you Zcash-pilled Jordi?”
Actually, I think I got to the same place as you a long time ago. I've been publicly shilling Zcash very hard. I've never been this bullish on a coin. Naval provoked me. He literally said, “In crypto, the only asset I'm interested in is this. This is the only thing.”
From my perspective, if you're going to sell to capture that much, I'm not excited about working with holders who want to make a few million and then give up. Naval, Balaji, Mert—there's a whole crowd like that. They're not going to immediately transfer it from paper into reality. So that's part of the conviction.
The other side is that Bitcoin has a quantum problem. Zcash addresses that more directly. That's great. Privacy is good. In that way, it seems like an upgrade over Bitcoin. That's it—it's a bonus. Is that the main thing? I don't know.
3. When Does Taiki Actually Sell?
Two weeks ago, I said this was the perfect trading asset, because all of it is pure psychology. The game theory, the group dynamics—everything is clean. It can go 2x and then overcome that multiple times. Everyone is excited, so this is a very high-scale trade. Later, because it has no fundamental value, it will be very hard to break.
Therefore, a P/E ratio of 10—because below that, nobody is buying it—wouldn't be the same.
Yes. Pure trading asset.
We've seen it, right? Back in June, Zcash was at about $30. When it got close to $300, I sold it for $300. I held it for about 2 weeks, and then I went away for my honeymoon. When I came back, I thought, “This is correct. For me, longing again seems right.” Let's go.
But where are you going? What do you like?
I think Zcash is a competitor or an alternative—a practical store of value. Zcash's market cap is 1.5% of Bitcoin's market cap. Moving from 1% to 3% would be easy, I think. Going from 3% to 4% would be more difficult, but a 2x or 3x increase from there is possible.
On-chain, you can observe the distribution and dilution of Zcash. As long as it rises, more people are using it. That means something. There are memes online saying that nobody uses Zcash, but you can check the chain.
Personally, I enjoy mixing the ZEC-to-Bitcoin ratio with my own goals and the fundamental case, if it is supported.
Let's bring Dim in, because we've been talking about Zcash for many months. We reached our goal—that was $1,000. We've clearly taken some off, but maybe there's more to dream about. Dim, where are you on this?
In my mind, Bitcoin at a number like 5% is possible. That seems like a very good number.
Taiki, the key is what happens with the chart and the math if that comes. That's the most interesting thing.
About a year ago, around this same time, someone told me about a connection with Zcash. Someone connected me with the foundation and introduced me to an OTC opportunity. I spoke with them, and they said, “Oh, OTC.” I said, “No.”
I don't know exactly what happened. Maybe it was completely unrelated, or maybe I got wrong information from someone, but something was happening. I thought I was too heavily involved in buying from a blocked source. At least some of the value was there—at least $100 below, or something like that. It seemed like someone was minting.
Let's highlight the top 10 assets.
Justin, can you bring up CoinGecko? It's already a major asset. It's in the top 10, isn't it?
Let's see. Where is it? We're in 10th place. Hyperliquid has flipped it.
Hyperliquid flipped it. What's amazing is that it's behind Tron. Justin, are you online? The figure is around $20 billion.
There's a respectable amount of unrealized PnL. This is 3x—about $14 billion in unrealized PnL has been created. Even when hacks happen, their tokens often don't move. We saw that. Nobody in the group moved the tokens.
Of course, this doesn't mean all the tokens are moving. Liquidity is circulating around. Often, deep declines happen, but there will be good stability and excellent trading as the asset changes hands. I think there is a lot of unrealized PnL now.
For the next leg, people need to raise their average entry. It's a little tiring, but we'll get the next leg. I'm not a pessimist. Everything is done here; I'm just waiting for a better entry.
Can Bitcoin get a privacy feature? Is a quantum-resistant privacy feature possible? Is that actually the purpose of Bitcoin? Is it possible?
Yes, but that's also the point. That's why governments support it. They say, “Let there be billions of dollars of value on this public ledger. What is happening? Let's see.”
So it has two sides.
It's a bit of an insurance policy. If something happens to Bitcoin, Zcash will still be there. Naval and his team explained it to me that way. If Bitcoin fails badly, it is possible for Zcash to work well in response, because the technical answer is there.
Bitcoin's distribution is better in some ways, but distributing it to so many people took many years because it was necessary. You have large holders. I saw some statistics about the number of Bitcoin owners, and it seemed very high, because the average owner has only a fraction.
Theoretically, though, the distribution is very broad. There is a universe where, in 2 or 3 years, Taiki, Michael Saylor becomes a Zcash maximalist. I'm thinking about that universe. It could happen. He becomes the father of Zcash, creates assets forever, and keeps losing money. Maybe that's the best way to exit.
Yes. Robinhood has one of the network tokens paired with ChatGPT.
Like on long.xyz. I saw this. Is it real? Someone posted a Chad NFT collection. It was like—
Did you really?
4. Plumbers vs. The Trenches
No, no, I wasn't expecting it. Someone was going to tweet it. I'll put this in. Oh, here it is. Let's go. I found it.
Where is this? What is it?
I have it here. I'm putting it in the chat. Wow, this is new.
Oh, what? It's real?
They found it. They found it. They found it. They're very beautiful. They're very good things. Forty-two in Taiki. This is done. This was done on 9/11.
Launched? That's bad. It's an omen.
Okay, anyway. Randomly, with macro, a little boomer news is happening. Obviously, CPI came out. There are some things to talk about.
Before we get to that, did you know that a plumber anon called? That's fair. Actually, all of us plumbers were being called out for being in the trenches.
First of all, I'm the only one who's a plumber. Dim, you know, he's a young gun. He's, like, 20-something. He's in the trenches. He's in FOMO. He's spending all his money.
I made new friends. Making money is more important than that. I've participated in all the games, fairly, if I say so. I've taken it very seriously. I can't say I FOMO'd in as hard as some people. For me, it's kind of an explosion; I liked it. I lost money, I think, but I do it, so I don't take it too seriously.
You excavated a coin? Which token is that?
Over the past 2 weeks, my favorite token has been Mike Tyson. That's a Robinhood, not a coin. SBF completely shilled it, and now it's gone to zero. It's a low-float coin, I don't know. The Mike Tyson fight coin—comparing it to Mike Tyson's fight coin, it's the same. Even if it's not meta, I found it very interesting.
What is Mike Tyson's market cap?
It was $200,000 when it started. Then it went to $2 million. Later, it was dead.
Mike Tyson. It's trending on Solana, comparing it with Robinhood.
Yesterday, I saw something interesting. Of course, Google and other labs are basically recreating a fly's neurons.
What was it? A fly or something else?
Someone took it, and they released a meme coin. For example, they brought out a meme coin based on the fly. It raised $100 million, and then that died, too.
The GOAT cycle is like that. It really didn't last. It was good, but it didn't. So far, it's dead. I thought about buying it. I liked it.
It seems very stretched. With GOAT, it felt like I had never seen this new hot object before. That's right. It seems the fly is gone. A meme coin on the side was created using a description, and they launched it.
At least the original Truth Terminal tweet was doing something, right? You couldn't talk to someone like this. Taiki, it's still early. You can tweet it.
Oh, Justin. Justin, is this buying? Mark Anderson followed the account. That was uncomfortable.
Maybe that's it. It's pumped, isn't it?
Yeah, it's like that.
Let's talk a little about the leaderboard. Unipcs has already done a lot of round trips, it seems. He was at $27 million, and then that rose, I think. Now he's down to $13 million. Is that accurate?
He had a big bag, it seems. I think he was at $26 million and now he's at $18 million. That's an $8 million drop.
Got it. Then there's Pudgy Penguins. Robinhood's launchpad was one of the early runners. That one is approaching a billion. What is this trade doing now? Six hundred? Sixty?
It's a little crazy for the day. This is a token that reached the peak and then slowly went down.
Loricai, on Hyperliquid, made a big short public. What happened was, at the start of the season, Loricai was in first place. There was crazy hype around him. He reached first place with big positions everywhere, and he worked very hard on that short.
In the afternoon, a competitor called Claude started, and somehow it won first place. He looked at the chart and tweeted about Pez Lounge. He pointed out that he could build a slightly better version of the thing and continue its income. There was no reason for it to be completely broken; it was still right there, continuing to try. There was a lot of uPnL, it seems, but that's the condition of the fight.
After falling $6 million, Loricai is green again. Now it may seem that he rose by about $1.5 million. So that's it. Not bad.
A real-world asset, a stock token, and a meme coin pairing—a new reality on-chain to light a fire for the season. Is it enough, or is it different? Does it matter? What do you think? So far, that doesn't seem like enough to me.
Yes. There's a lot of risk to take on-chain. I wish it were enough. I think it is, but pairing a meme coin with a stock isn't an innovation, so I don't think so.
However, I have a Boner. I like it. Boner is very interesting, I think. I'm not taking over Boner's ownership, but in this trench group chat, people are posting Boner. It's like a boner. I'm very immature, so I find it funny.
But you're not going to buy it, are you?
I'm not going to buy it. It's happening on-chain, and it's a good thing. People are doing things in the trenches. I think this is one of the signs of a blooming bull market. It's a cultural thing.
Isn't it? Robinhood is a stock product. All of these GME stocks are coming to crypto. For them, this is a way to merge things on-chain. You have a stock and you have a meme, and you see them mixing. Memes aren't creating value because something valuable is there. They're simply denominated in dollars—USDC or USDT, anyway. That doesn't make them more valuable.
You have to avoid suddenly thinking that something has value just because it has value in its name. However, as Taiki said, it's a creative way to unlock something. I was talking about the penguin. You could pair it with Snowflake. That makes sense; it's a big company.
I have another idea: pairing a stock with a coin that I'm going to launch myself. I want to talk about it, but I don't know.
Yeah, yeah. What is it?
In crypto memes, we're all pre-rich, aren't we? All of us are pre-rich.
A good stock is Prenetics. That's what I'm calling it. Prenetics is the company that manufactured this. This is IM8, an all-in-one supplement. David Beckham is involved, too. All of this is being sold, and it seems like a very good supplement. It's easy to take; I think it's a good one.
So I want to do a pre-rich, Prenetics pairing. I've been talking with Robinhood about doing this on-chain. Is that possible?
Look, if someone else does this, don't buy it. I have the contract address. You'll get an unofficial Pre-Rich token that will never come out. That's a rug. It's not possible to guarantee it, but I'll try, right? Let's try.
You will try, but you can't guarantee it.
Nick O'Neill, or whatever his name is. I think so.
Does he do cancer or anything else?
Yeah, we meant that it's a health-related kind of relationship.
Yes, he said yes.
5. The Substack Token Disaster
My token launch, whatever. If I do this, I don't know. I can see that this week, for LAPTOP, what happened was bad.
LAPTOP, of course, is Hunter Biden's token. It didn't go well. Today he posted a video. Let's look at part of his post and take it in. He's not wrong: he blamed Wintermute.
Go back a little further. A little further back. The tokenomics were being created, and there was a method for presenting the coin. Then, do you know what happened? Finally, it became my responsibility, and then trouble happened.
The coin was released and reached the top 30 within seconds. That's when the trouble happened. The market maker invested only $5,000 in liquidity. Demand went too far. The coin rose to $2.39, and then it went to $316 billion in market cap. That was bigger than BlackRock's market cap.
They had control, but before the damage happened, it was like a Christmas tree—like an Everest peak. I was in it until the end. One hundred percent, we guarantee that it's good.
That's good. It's good. I have a lot to say. Legally, I don't think that person was the market maker.
Let's do it. Can you say it? Is that true?
Look, which one? What country? What kind of market maker was that? I can't tell you. I can't say. We know. That's just—alas, the market maker was setting up liquidity for one person, and I don't think they knew how to set it up correctly.
The first token on the blockchain—as soon as you arrive, what happens? I've done a lot of large launches. When a token hits, everything is fine. The contract address is already announced, and that's it. Sniping bots rush in. All of them get beaten because they're usually already making money.
In this event, some tokens went into a pool, but there were very, very few tokens. They didn't set it up correctly. Maybe they got MEV'd. Who knows? They do this.
Well, it isn’t done, it seems. The thing has risen by $300 million. Then the tokens started to be claimed. When I saw Substack users selling at $500,000 a pop, I saw four of them. That’s cool, I think. That’s good. It was a race, right?
Snipers got into trouble. The airdrop to the recipients was large, with a valuation that gave them the opportunity to exit.
Right. The chart was obviously a disaster. It was completely broken. This news—how is there so much of it? That’s bad. I don’t know, because yes, of course, this is down 99%.
$400 million is a random valuation to put in the spotlight for a token—a bad one. That doesn’t mean anything.
Technically, yes, it decreased by 99.9%. This was just one hated launch, and coming back from it is difficult. Did someone buy this?
Yes, I bought this.
6. Pasta of the Week
Someone bought this? Did you know that if this launch had been done correctly, I would have bought it? I had that available. I hate it that much.
There was one thing I thought: a $100 million market cap. If you start organically, that’s what I would have done.
But what happened? What are they doing? It’s not clear. In my opinion, this type of token is predictable. You have to know that, even if you have to do a presale or something, you need to manage the price properly.
You should give everyone a few tokens—50 million, anyway—and then allow it to trade.
That’s a very good one. Now, how do you trade it? I don’t know. This is Tier 1, and there are no listings. It’s KuCoin and some small exchanges.
Yes, I think they’re at least saving the money for charity, aren’t they? Substack users—
Oh, right. Are you all thinking about the pushback? Because literally all the big accounts like meme coins and trade them. Big accounts often oppose this, but it seems great to me.
I don’t think so. Among all the others, this is basically not that different. So this time, I agree with your comments, Justin. Your comments often don’t fit, but this time I completely agree. Everyone else doing the same thing is wrong.
Yes. People will do this to earn money, to do nothing on-chain. They’ll do it as if we don’t exist. When you ape in, you can’t be the morality police.
I would call out special influencers who do anything else. I don’t want to, but anyway, this is it.
Yes, I mean, Jordi, a pre-rich token is starting to go. That’s what it was. It was more than that—excellent in the way I was trying to work.
Yes, but that pre-rich token, if that’s what it’s called, is very low. How should I start? That’s how it is. That’s challenging.
Okay, what if you save money for a cancer charity? Or what if Nick has cancer? Even if it happens, what if you save money for an AI lab to solve things like cancer?
At the same time, I want the CEO—I know the CEO—to give all holders free supplements. I’ll ask the CEO to give them to us. This is really good for digestion, and we can act as if it’s successful.
I’m not going to make money. Maybe I can earn a little. It will take time. Let’s see.
But look, my holdings are in stock. I meant maybe the stock will rise a little, possibly.
Hmm, maybe that’s something. Okay, let’s see. Let’s think about it. Let’s think about the coin.
Okay. All of us holders successful. #HoldersWin.
Okay, we talked a lot about the trenches. Let’s talk about the trenches. People thought this was the trench episode, I think. Is anything else happening in the trenches?
Oh, what else is happening in the trenches? This whole market—Bitcoin is ripping. It’s like we’re back to $77,777.
Oh my God, lucky number. Give me a moment. I need to buy a little Bitcoin. Look at the chart while you keep talking. Give me the chart. Let’s have a minute. Can I go?
Yeah, you can.
Okay, I want to see this. This is the thing I want to see. I actually want to see how much it will rise.
I think it can get there. Tell me, this has happened before, but now the market is very liquid, so that can completely change. Are we inside? Did it climb? Let’s see.
Can you take that out and share it?
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Wait, was that you, Jordi? Wait, is that a miniature?
I need a second. I said I don’t have access. It’s okay. I upgraded the subscription. I have Premium Plus Pro.
No, Justin locked it. That’s how it is.
What happens with stocks, by the way? How is the Nasdaq? I want to see it. Is it still up by a percentage? Still up?
Oh, I meant, this is clearly a bull market.
7. CPI, Rate Hikes & Is The Bear Actually Over?
Okay, everyone, no financial advice. Live-streaming a Bitcoin purchase isn’t something I like, but I’m going to stay away for a moment. At least for Bitcoin, it looks like this.
If we get above $83,000, I have an alert. This is an important moment.
The bear market is completely over. It’s very clear.
I don’t think so. Bitcoin is now 35% down from its all-time high. There has been enough pain and washing out; it doesn’t seem like it has happened.
I was hoping for it, but to see new lower levels, at least in the high $50,000s—if we go back there, I’m 50/50. It’s on the fence.
The bull market has completely returned, and we have returned. Can you still see it?
I think so. I’m curious. I think we’ve returned. Bitcoin trading past ETH on the cycle wouldn’t surprise me.
There it is—people are frustrated. Saylor is all-in. Every day he posts memes about quantum. It’s really not working. As long as you give it time, we of course have a good one in Powell, I think.
I think the market has to change. I’m waiting for 2 things.
First, stocks have to stop. All stocks are going up every day for free, even though it’s money. Everything—the Nasdaq—is rising like crazy, remember.
The other thing is rotation into other assets. Nobody likes that. Now we’re stuck on the Nasdaq. It went to 29, then 30, then back to 28, as if it had fallen. It’s kind of stagnant.
The S&P is the same. We’ve now been flat for months. I mean, you saw the Nasdaq: April, May, June, July. At one point, people were seeking yield—some kind of return somewhere.
Another really positive thing is the dollar. Whenever we start talking about debasement, that’s 100% the subject. It creates a bid for Bitcoin. Gold can work too. In every discussion of debasement, the macro guys are bidding Bitcoin very hard, I think.
Today was an interesting move. We got CPI. CPI came in as expected, but basically we’re going to get a rate increase. The data is decreasing, and considering not doing a rate increase would be crazy.
There will be no change, but the market still has 17% uncertainty. Finally, if they don’t do it, it will be clear that it’s for political reasons, not financial reasons. That’s what the rate increase is requesting.
Inflation is decreasing. There’s no reason not to believe it. Gas is rising. In October, we don’t want that because the midterms are coming up. They could do it now, potentially.
So we’re back. If we enter a hiking cycle, that means you’re not bullish on Bitcoin or crypto in general, right?
For stocks, of course, this is a small challenge. Theoretically, this isn’t good for gold, because the opportunity cost of holding gold instead of Treasury bills is increasing. Bitcoin has a similar problem. That opportunity cost is increasing.
Long-end money printing will continue. Considering the current situation, in my opinion, dollars are too hard to abandon. Moreover, they’re trying to reduce long-end rates.
This rate increase was a very interesting response for us. Obviously, the market is hot on inflation numbers, but for it to be that high? No. Whatever this rate increase does, the dollar is going to continue to break down. I can smell it.
I think we’ll get a weak dollar. Finally, that’s good for assets, and in the case of a dollar alternative, an asset like Bitcoin is especially good.
Maybe this would be better for Zcash. Taiki will be happy. However, that’s more unstable and speculative.
For me, it seems that most of the alts are super—not bullish. Dim is more bullish on the alts than I am. As a macro asset, I’m bullish. On Bitcoin, I’m a little more bullish.
Anyway, ETH is showing excellent performance. What’s happening with ETH over the past few days? I don’t know. It received a big bid.
Is Tom Lee there?
I don’t know. Is Tom Lee in the books? Is there some clue? I mean, he was buying, that’s what it seems like to me. But he said his goal was close to 5%—there’s no point, he said. So now he has deployed as much as half a billion into ETH. Is that him? I’m not sure.
Maybe it’s very good. Maybe he put the rest into Worldcoin. Do you like it? Is he in the orbs or something?
Worldcoin’s good. I spoke about NEAR a little a few weeks ago. NEAR is having a huge rip. I spoke about Grass too. Grass was growing, and then someone cut the grass. Who was that? I don’t know. I’m hoping it grows again.
Of course, Worldcoin is another AI coin. For me, Worldcoin is now really my favorite—the only one. OpenAI is really winning now.
8. AI Tokens, WorldCoin & The BNB Trade
A month ago, if you looked at the secondaries below market, OpenAI blocks were being sold everywhere. Now you can’t find any OpenAI blocks. Everyone is eager to sell Anthropic, and there are Anthropic blocks.
The new model, Astra, is being used on a large scale. It’s clear.
Anthropic is left behind. Worldcoin and OpenAI clearly have a relationship. Sam Altman is a co-founder of both, maybe. They may be holding some kind of presentation.
When is it, Taiki? Is it too soon? They always say the fourth quarter. Have they given any indication about the presentation?
They still haven't announced a date. But I know they're very happy. They're fine, and they'll be capitalized.
Do you know what they're doing? They know they don't want the token to go to zero. This isn't helping the brand, and they know it.
On the private side, there was an assumption that a bid had been received. It was taken over a small interval, I think. That's the other side of the coin.
OpenAI has a good presentation and a good description as well, since it's traded so well.
VVV is $25 or something. That's what I saw. It seems to me that people are asking them for more. That's on the 30th? I liked it, I think. Now it's $25.29.
Wow, that has really been torn up for a while now. I don't use it. I know people want to ask it questions, but they don't want to connect with it.
With OpenRouter, I think you're able to do this. Apparently, some people do. They like using the product, and you have to like the product to use the token or get anything else from it.
Another one—we discussed it before the show—works very well in this area. I can tell you that.
Justin, look at Jordi. A lot of altcoins are giving Jordi money. This is a bull market, baby. Come on.
Continue, please. Sorry, continue.
That's true. I usually don't talk about altcoins, but this is a bull market. I have to say, I like it. It's interesting.
Jordi, you started by saying, “I'm very bullish on Bitcoin,” but here are some altcoins. None of you have mentioned Lighter. How are you not on Lighter?
I'm long Lighter. Yes, bro, I'm long Lighter.
Lighter was undervalued for a long time. They have a good path ahead of them because Vlad has been deeply involved in discussions in Washington, and he has relationships there.
That's very well done. The hype is a little different, though. Within months, there are unlocks coming. HYPE has billions in monthly unlocks, but it seems that only a very small percentage is being sold.
Yes, there is a team. HYPE is a strange one. It somehow stunned me. Eighty—no one in the world does that. People don't want to buy it.
I've seen Multicoin abandon its bag for a great trade. Congratulations to them.
If Multicoin is exiting, they're not exiting Solana. If they're exiting, who is buying? I don't know exactly. Obviously, they were buying for a while, but now they've stopped.
The metric that really scares me is that, for stakers, the only thing being paid is inflation. It's very low—1% or 2%—but the staker yield is much higher than the buybacks.
How much is the yield? Considering that it's lower, this seems crazy. The real income is in the billions. If it does more than $80 billion in trading, even a 2% yield can be seen.
I'm not sure. At $55, I liked it; I've spoken about it before. Who is buying this in the $80s? I don't know. If you know something new is happening for them, it could produce more income.
For us, more income is required.
Yes, Lighter has a very strong foundation. It seems to me that HYPE has to appreciate by at least 10%. I like HYPE, but I'm not a buyer here.
Lighter has a very good monetization strategy, I think. Hyperliquid's fees are very high, while its growth vector is RWA markets and low-fee promotion. So compared with HYPE, Lighter is working very well.
In your opinion, Hyperliquid is like OpenAI at $100 billion? It's crazy. This is a very expensive project.
Most of the community and the community sentiment are directed toward Jeff. In crypto, he may be the best builder I've seen. I have to say that. He's passionate about building, and it is a good product.
But all products, especially the products they've released, are very socially oriented. Within months, the unlocks are coming. Lighter has had the better performance, from what I've seen. I think they need to show more income.
I'm an angel investor, so I want to help them create more income. That gives liquidity to other markets.
Yes, your funds turned into income. The change is easy.
It's strange because I really like it. I like their team, and I like Vlad. Nothing major has changed. The token is cheap, I think.
I'm not a big fan of the cabal. The listings and everything else they did before were suspicious. But they understood one thing first: RWA matters.
On the RWA side, they have listed so many assets. Even with so much liquidity, I was shocked by how well it worked. I don't know how they did it. Maybe they have internal market makers; maybe they don't. I don't know what's happening.
There are so many RWA assets with really good liquidity. The volumes are excellent. You can have a SpaceX token or whatever else you want, and you can fill it with whatever you need.
They have turned into a good RWA venue with significant volumes. Their on-chain activity has always felt very artificial to me, but the number of wallet owners is increasing. I don't know what's happening, but their on-chain side looks strong.
They may also do more in the United States. Have you heard anything more about what's happening in the U.S.?
Yes, I really like bringing in real-world assets. Taking one small step back and putting it into a broader vision, tokenized stocks are basically a way to export U.S. dollars. That's the way to do it.
A U.S. company can tokenize every share. A child in Nigeria or someone in India can hold it. It's a dollar-denominated claim, and you don't need local banks or brokers.
The first layer I saw was stablecoins spreading the dollar to Germany. Now dollar assets are the second layer. Then, at the empire level, there's a question: whose savings and assets are you putting where?
It should be the United States, I think. For example, China has closed capital markets. So who gains in the U.S.? I think the biggest dollar suppliers outside the U.S. are companies.
Robinhood wasn't part of it because it was only in the U.S. Europe was part of it, but more of it was in the U.S. By using the on-chain aspect, they've become that kind of player.
People are talking about Hyperliquid, and Robinhood as well. For the U.S., the strategic asset is changing. The main leader is Binance, I think.
After CZ's apology, Binance will return to the United States. Is that what slowly happens? They're going to IPO. They'll do more in the U.S. I don't know. They'll update the network and take over the network.
The other thing you've convinced me of is this. First of all, I started looking at the chart, and it's very interesting. If you zoom out, you can see a full debt of 1.3 in the season, almost like a run.
There was no RWA during that period. It was around $550, and the income was lower.
Which floor? Even if it is, that's no problem. You're near the $600 level, and we're only at $700. On the RWA side, the income will be better. It's clear, because they've pivoted well.
I spoke with Binance representatives, as you know. They said, “We're no longer a crypto platform.” Everyone says it like that: “We work in finance now.”
They've worked in a notable number of areas—spot, perps, and creation, especially perps—but all of them are spot assets as well.
At a $600 floor price, with at least $900 as a price target, the risk-reward is significant. I think the Binance thesis is clear.
Everything you said about TradFi perps and so on is undoubtedly happening. But how is that reflected in the token? That's the big question.
My understanding is that the buybacks are completely discretionary, right? So it's like equity. That's interesting. Are BNB's buybacks real, or are they not actually buybacks?
I don't know about all of them, but that's interesting. After Binance started printing coins, it already had a reserve in distribution. They say, “These aren't the same coins already in circulation. We're burning them.”
So this isn't an original buyback, but I agree with you. The rest of the thesis is that BNB is staying out of the picture, while these people are very good.
They really take pride in saying that they understand it. They have a lot of pride. We've all met them. They take pride in being in the game rather than abstaining.
Let's say the most important thing is this: look at the United States. In the competition, nobody is counting Binance as a force. If they come, they're abroad.
They’re earning too much money every year, in stocks and in crypto, for nothing—without fees. They’re destroying Coinbase, they’re destroying Poloniex, and they’re destroying everyone else. I think that kind of thesis is really strong.
Will they succeed? I don’t know, but the truth is that if they say something, they’ll speak about it. The truth will change, but as far as we know, that’s the narrative until it changes. You need to keep executing on your side. To tell the truth, that’s how you trade. Yes. Jordi, Bitcoin is dumping.
Can you buy it? I can buy some. I can buy a little more. Yeah, yeah, I can buy a little more.
I’m holding on to BNB. BNB is still at $730. I really like the Binance thesis; it makes sense. I think their FDV is around $100 billion, and Hyperliquid is very close to that FDV.
Obviously, the circulating supply and market cap are very different, but Binance perps sometimes do $100 billion a day. They’re still 10 times bigger than Hyperliquid, aren’t they?
Yes, that’s amazing. They’re also breaking into TradFi perps. We love this. We’re watching it carefully; they’re doing the best work.
Are you focusing more on crypto perps, or on TradFi perps?
Yeah, basically, that’s our whole growth vector right now: TradFi perps. We’ve released a new type of swap product, and Hyperliquid has received the most attention in finance. TradFi perps have about 10 times better execution on this.
But yes, TradFi perps are obviously the future. Altcoins and trading crypto markets have interested us a lot for the last 2 months, but when you zoom out, you can see that altcoin volume is decreasing while TradFi volume is increasing. So that’s where we’re focusing our attention.
Yes, this is very exciting. Binance is working well, and it’s really nice to see. Hyperliquid and Lighter are working well, too. We’re adding the best performance for users across all these venues together. When they win, we win, so that’s good.
I want to see how you’re comparing swaps with perps. I’m really interested. Obviously, there’s a difference, and you don’t have to think about funding rates.
One of the guests asked Justin if he’s on Ozempic. Are you on Ozempic, Justin?
Yes. For 2 weeks. I did that before.
Didn’t you say that publicly? You said you did it for your marriage, to get a 6-pack.
I did it for that.
Wait, are you on Ozempic, Justin? Are you trolling? Is this a troll?
I’m serious.
So you got on it? This is a life hack. You’re never interested in snack time.
This is crazy. I did it in very small doses, possibly the lowest dose.
Did you talk about that in a past episode? You said you did that, right? I know you promised a shirtless photo when you got a 6-pack.
I can’t confirm or deny that. It didn’t work.
Dim, don’t be tempted. He’s at the gym. Let’s do this. I don’t want to discuss it. Let’s go to the pasta, friends.
Yes. Obviously, Apple recently announced the iPhone Duo. It’s like a flip phone, so you can see 2 things at once. For traders, you can use the 2 screens on the iPhone Duo at the same time.
This is incredible. It’s new. When your coin is going down, you can look at it while you’re at McDonald’s. You can do 2 different things at once—McDonald’s and KFC.
Exactly. So productivity increases. I think the iPhone Duo is bullish. Are you buyers?
I’m a buyer. Finally. Maybe not on the first day, but I’m a buyer.
Justin, should I give your iPhone Duo thesis, or should I let you give it?
I’m a buyer. I’m a buyer.
There’s too much screen. Overall, it’s just one whole screen, and everything is already a computer. The whole purpose of folding is to remove the screen, but these people are putting another screen on the other side. It’s dull.
You are a person. Are you single? You are. You’re a Duo user, so you have to buy it. Getting the latest iPhone product is the most important market signal. If you don’t buy it, you’re not the most excellent person.
It’s like your fancy watches. No one pays attention to watches anymore, but having the latest iPhone is good. No case. That’s good.
No case. No case, that’s true.
Yes, that was Justin’s iPhone Duo thesis. Solid. It’s a thesis. This is alpha. There may have been zero alpha on the show, but that was alpha.
For us, we got Worldcoin. We got BNB. We talked about Lyra, and we talked about Zcash. What else? Let’s have a group of random shitcoins.
Dim, what have you got?
Okay, this week, let’s go back to my favorite coin: Mike Tyson, baby.
Of course, Robinhood was very hot on Solana. It went viral—the first coin, as far as I could see, connected to Tyson biting. Then I selected this tweet. This is me trying to repair my anger, because you already have the same stocks. He’s a man, and you’re a student; I know.
Solana Mike Tyson is a god-tier meme. I’m using it to repair the situation. Anyway, I have this. To tell the truth, it’s an interesting meme, but I don’t understand it. Maybe I’m the only one.
My brain is in the coin. It will stand firm. You’re a plumber, Justin. You’re a plumber; in plumbing, you stand firm. I’m golden. It’s like a medal. I’m looking for a medal. I’m writing about biting Tyson.
Justin, what have you got?
Okay, this is our poster style. We’ve used it before, I think, so this is a small reminder.
You know our memes. We had our tokenized-stock memes, and here we have this one. It can be sold. For me, how will you sell it? This is a tokenized stock paired with a meme coin.
This is different. It isn’t paired with dollars; it’s a tokenized stock paired with a meme. The tokenized stock can go up or down, and that’s a meme coin because it will appreciate too much. I like it. This works.
Me too. A stock paired with a coin—I said that was a little fraudulent for the day, but then I said, “That makes sense.” Let’s do Hims & Hers if you like; they’re good.
Yes, you’re right. Here on the stream, this is flat, so it’s okay.
Some people believe in it. I have an interesting poster. I found a new main character, and that character seems to be energy.
I have this account. There’s another person on CT, but I’m not saying who I am. He says, “Look at him.” When you look at him, he seems like Justin Sun 2.0.
Stambouli has a token called O1. It’s on the exchange, and I don’t know what’s happening. Apparently, he appointed someone named Yuyu, some KOL. The person says, “I really like O1.”
The person has a big, beautiful face. I really like it. He has energetic CEO energy with a golden retriever inside. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen someone like that. So far, I still haven’t seen the boss’s abs. The benefits to the company will get better, I hope.
I don’t know what’s happening. Justin Sun gives me this strange Chinese KOL vibe. Is he trolling? Is it being held? I don’t know. Anyone who goes to play the Tron part will see that this is him.
Pay attention to the face, because his big, beautiful face might pump some tokens. I don’t know. Is it just me, or does Asian Justin Bieber look like him? Can you put the photo up? Wait, wearing glasses, doesn’t he look like Justin? The smile is wild.
Oh my God. Someone in the chat should ask ChatGPT to compete with him and see how well it works. We need to show it: outside, CEO energy; inside, golden retriever.
I’ll take it. But no abs.
Let’s hold a poll. The poll is over. Oh, yes, a live poll.
TikTok is successful by 10% more.
Really? The iPhone Duo?
Yes, Jordi. Two thoughtful posters fell into a trap. You should think about this more. It’s a little more, you know? For Zoomers, there’s no focus. You have to get 2—maximum 2. Two clicks, that’s what you need.
Wow, Jordi is in last place at 4%. Last place. Holy shit. Nobody is paying attention to the new characters.
Okay, then you arrived. No one wants abs. They don’t want to see it. No one wants abs. They don’t want to see it.
If you look at the short-term frame, wait. Bitcoin—I saw a little buying. Is that you, Jordi?
I know. Let’s finish the stream. I have to go back to my ways.
No, Jordi. These are your buttons. Are they clickable?
You don’t need to. I have MetaMask. You have to experience it. You have to feel the market. When you place an order, you need to see what’s happening. You have to do it yourself. You have to see it yourself.
I know. What happens? You do that. I want to see it.
Okay, let’s see the poll results. That doesn’t look like it’s going well.
What? Even Justin defeated me.
Holy shit. Oh my God, Little Mike Tyson is successful? Damn, baby. Mike Tyson.
What? Wait, you’re like that? Did you do it? Faked? You faked the account?
The trenches liked it, friend. During the show, did the market cap change?
Is it there? Is it there? Do you still have it? Have you put it in?
No, I have it. I haven’t placed it.
But we should sell it. I’m looking.
This isn’t fun at 200K. At 2 million, this is very interesting. At 20 million, it’s funny. At 200 million, Mike Tyson—we need to talk about this. That’s rare, like a coin, it seems.
Yes, exactly. If you say so. When it rises, that’s the only time you have fun. Now, that’s not interesting.
This is at 200K. Ridiculous. This is at 200K. I don’t want to own it. I shared it.
Justin, you’re on my screen. If it rises, that’s the chart.
It seems terrible. There’s nothing there, it seems. This seems like 2017–2018 Bitcoin.
Yes. So far, this is the worst coin.