Andrew Walker × Simeon McMillan

Nintendo’s Switch 2 flywheel remains unproven: low attach rates, roughly flat online subscribers, a Zelda remake-led holiday slate, and Pokémon potentially delayed until spring 2027 leave the new cycle dependent on aging IP.Memory inflation has forced an early price increase, while Spotify’s 2024–2025 royalty resets and new audiobook revenue offer a cleaner path toward 20% operating margins by 2030.

Kevin Roose × Casey Newton

AI safety has moved from Bay Area inside talk to mainstream political risk as former Anthropic and OpenAI researcher Jacob Coxon quit and frontier leaders publicly sought coordinated restraint.Unsolved alignment, earlier-than-expected agent behavior, and labs using models to build successors make recursive self-improvement a nearer-term concern, while limited political capacity could narrow the window for action before expertise and compute diffuse.

Elena Burger × Ruby Justice Thelot

Wellness discourse routinely outruns behavior: 90% of Americans have heard of GLP-1s, but only 11% are using them, while crypto shows a similar 95%-versus-14% gap.Thelot’s 960-video peptide sample shows skeptical “it’s kind of a scam” content rising in 2025–26 as promotional and personal content converge, offering a possible adoption-maturity signal.Peptides originated in Midwest bodybuilding and Austin med spas before Silicon Valley professionalized them, while consumer testing and avoidance-based certification could become new downstream markets.

Ben Gilbert × David Rosenthal

Home Depot’s extraordinary compounding rests on a differentiated specialty-retail system: tradespeople, 25,000 SKUs, supplier-financed inventory, and scale that once produced four times Lowe’s transactions.With 51% of a $300 billion market and a 42-year median U.S. home age, its logistics moat supports 2–24-hour delivery, while SRS integration and paused buybacks remain key milestones to monitor.

David Senra × Luca Ferrari

Bending Spoons is a buy-to-hold-forever operator, producing $3B in run-rate revenue at 54–55% adjusted operating income margins through acquisitions and deep integration.Evernote's headcount fell from 350 to about 20, while revenue now exceeds $100M and product velocity is at least three times faster, demonstrating the operating model's leverage.Diagram and Alt Spooner point to further productivity gains, while fewer, larger deals and the unresolved IPO timeline remain important execution signals to monitor.

Harry Stebbings × Matteo Franceschetti

AI is letting Eight Sleep scale output: engineers direct hundreds of AI engineers, while email marketing generates close to $100M with a team of zero and paid media produces $200–300M with two people.Watch whether this productivity supports the three-year target of 250 people making a billion, amid talent retention, Anthropic’s cost curve, regulation, and model self-learning risks.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg

Anthropic’s IPO faces a disclosure test after Evan Hubinger endorsed a greater-than-10% extinction probability, despite Polymarket’s 88% odds.Sacks argues rapid amplification may reflect a coordinated campaign targeting open-source weights, though that remains his interpretation.OpenAI’s Navier–Stokes result shows brute-force leverage, while data-leakage risks favor sovereign deployment and Nike’s 80% decline underscores a product, channel, and brand reset.

Andrew Walker × Alberto Vadia

Tiendas 3B brings Aldi/BİM’s hard-discount model to Mexico with roughly 3,700 stores, 1,000 SKUs, and over 60% private label.Organic distribution-center “cell division” supports expansion, while Vadia says halved 38% growth over two to three decades could produce a potential 100×.The key risk is whether two-year payback survives 15,000 stores as produce adds complexity and Mexico risk remains.

Koji × 陈安妮

快看漫画将Level从“漫画加AI”转向AI原生的实时世界，让用户作为角色介入由自主agent运行的“命运”，区别于Chatbot和斯坦福小镇的旁观式体验。剔除AI投入后主业已盈利、超过50%收入来自IP衍生，而此前为精品内容主动承担一两个月内数据可能下跌30%的代价；Level能否以更低token成本持续提供高质量体验，是商业化关键。

Beezie × Andrea Miele × Tuomas (Tuom) Holmberg

On-chain collectibles are accelerating: Collector Crypt reached roughly $400M in June and $300M in July versus $20M the prior July, while Beezie surpassed $200M.Discounted sourcing, sub-10% take rates and roughly 55 turns for lower-tier assets support liquidity, while Beezie’s Web2 partnership and unresolved token-ownership and regulatory questions frame the opportunity and risk.