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Yet Another Value Podcast
Andrew Walker interviews investors about actionable value and event-driven ideas, with each episode centered on a company, security, or investment thesis.
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$SEE.L: Europe just made this duopoly mandatory. Why is it 11x free cash flow? | Hugo Navarro
Europe’s July 2026 DMS mandate reinforces Seeing Machines’ and Smart Eye’s duopoly, while SEE trades at roughly 11x Navarro’s mid-range FY27 FCF estimate.About $55M of largely fixed opex creates operating leverage as volumes rise, while naturalistic data supports the moat.Risks include the $55M convertible due in October and weak Fleet conversions; a white-label licensing deal is not yet landed.
Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
With 10-year Treasuries and ERP around 4.5%, Walker warns that ERP returning to 6% could sharply compress P/E multiples.Higher rates could raise data-center lease requirements 5–10% and reduce 15-year contract terminal values, while tenant bankruptcy, Bitcoin-mining economics, or founder-driven capital allocation at UWMC and Cogent remain risks to monitor.
How to win a stock pitch competition | lessons from an Ira Sohn winner
Stock-pitch competitions reward selling the analyst as much as the stock, with the mandate and judges determining whether to pitch a compounder, event, or earnings surprise.Walker’s La Quinta win paired a novel C-corp-to-REIT transaction with unpriced Wyndham synergies, while customer calls can substantiate market-share claims.Bold targets must remain defensible, as modeling, risk detail, or sloppy formatting can destroy credibility.
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades at 2.3x EV/EBITDA after three years of windfall profits, with 80% fleet ownership and 2023 FCF of $100–200M.Customer float, Sabbath downtime, the $40M pricing fine, and eventual full competition temper the asset and slot-scarcity thesis.Stride's CEO exit makes late-October fall enrollment a potential 20-point catalyst either way, with Canvas execution and take-private speculation unresolved.
$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital
Nubank's 140M customers and 60% Brazilian adult penetration mask Evan Vanderveer's thesis that the next five years will deepen relationships, lifting ARPAC from 17 toward the high-20s.With 20% efficiency versus 40-60% at incumbents and 7% of Brazil's $100B banking gross-profit pool, Evan underwrites $2 EPS by 2029/2030 at 16×, while credit stress, global expansion and AI commoditization remain risks.
$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management
DNOW’s MRC Global merger creates a full-chain distributor with $75M targeted synergies and water, utilities, and data-center exposure.Buybacks at $10–12 and debt paydown support a cash-flow case, while the conservative-looking 2027 $350M EBITDA guide compares with roughly $400M on 2024 numbers.Reaching $30–32 by 2028–2029 from $16 depends on $300M 2027 FCF and re-rating, leaving ERP execution, macro recovery, and multiple expansion to monitor.
$HIMS: Paul Cerro wouldn't trust the CEO to walk his dog. He's still long. Why? | Cedar Grove
Cerro’s HIMS thesis shifts attention from peptide launches to the data and labs layer: subscriber counts have “barely grown” for three quarters, making retention the lever for LTV and payback.The August 10 print will test Eucalyptus-driven revenue upside against lower EBITDA guidance, the first full Novo Nordisk partnership quarter, and execution by management Cerro says he does not trust.
August 2026 Random Ramblings
Strategy’s $300M stock and $100M Bitcoin sale funded roughly $80M of STRC preferred purchases while it traded above NAV, reviving the case for a capital-structure reset.Situational Awareness’s 10x AI long/short trade blew up after repeated pressing without rebalancing.Former Bitcoin-miner power shells near CoreWeave or Meta contract DCFs may offer upside, subject to credit, capex, power and GPU risks.
Management interviews: the most underdeveloped skill in investing | Ross O'Toole
Ross O’Toole’s Breaking the Script tackles a largely undocumented investing skill: management interviews, while admitting investors may overestimate their ability to read executives.Longitudinal conversations, “what” instead of “why,” negative customer examples, and preparation can expose credibility and execution issues; AI may commoditize questions while recorded conversations increase the value of unique data.
July 2026 Random Ramblings
Walker’s core test for active-investing arrogance is practical: after three years of stagnation, reassess whether a seemingly cheap “good company” has quietly become a restructuring play.His missed late-2025 AI inflection, SanDisk’s roughly 0.5 times next year’s earnings spinout, and Nvidia’s 7.5% S&P 500 weight expose the cost of style constraints, leaving discipline versus mental block unresolved.