Investment pitches
- 1.81
- Long-running, token-heavy agentic workloads could make memory the market’s biggest blind spot: long decode raises capacity and bandwidth needs while compression and quantization lose effectiveness.
- Author favors HBM/DRAM names including MU and SKHY, plus Samsung; current low-to-mid-single-digit P/Es look dislocated if demand outruns supply, sustaining pricing, margins, earnings, and NAND spillover.
- Historical supply-cycle analysis is a counterweight, but the author expects this cycle’s demand growth to exceed forecast supply growth for longer.
- NVDA’s integrated compute, networking, interconnect, rack architecture, and software may deliver superior full-system goodput as prefill/decode complexity makes isolated chip benchmarks less relevant; the author remains bullish.