- Author sees a major deleveraging event: hedge-fund liquidation, pressured carry trades, and aggressive algorithmic shorting are amplifying the selloff; relief rallies have not confirmed a trend reversal.
- The author believes AI’s fundamental case remains intact, with election uncertainty and forced positioning—not deteriorating businesses—driving much of the current selling.
- After buying too early, some positions fell another 30–40% despite already being down 70% from their highs; the author is keeping cash sidelined until selling pressure fades and strength improves.
- Diversification across Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Treasuries, and Chinese equities cushioned the portfolio. The author expects a reversal after deleveraging but will not rush, short, or sell to buy back lower.
Investment pitches
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64 72 - CIFR’s Bottom Index is at its highest since April 2025, when the stock bottomed below $2 before a 1,500% rally; price is retesting higher-timeframe support.
- Its data-center leasing model avoids billions in GPU purchases, using long-term AWS and Fluidstack contracts to support project-level debt; Google backs approximately $1.73 billion of Fluidstack obligations.
- Three leases provide approximately $793 million of contracted annual net operating income. Black Pearl is earning rent, while Barber Lake’s first data halls are expected in Q4 2026–Q1 2027.
- The author sees an accumulation opportunity but is waiting for support to hold. The November 2 Q3 update is the next catalyst; delays, overruns and convertible dilution remain risks.
72 - IREN remains a falling knife; the author expects more near-term downside but sees $18–20 as the Fibonacci Golden Pocket area where a durable reversal could form.
- November 5 earnings may reveal a reported Anthropic deal, a potential reversal catalyst; an unconfirmed Microsoft-requested Childress redesign could delay Horizon 2 by up to 45 days, creating selling pressure even within the contractual grace period.
- Compared with leveraged peer CRWV, IREN has stronger liquidity and senior debt largely maturing in 2030 or later, providing expansion runway despite substantial infrastructure funding needs.
- The author remains bullish over months and years, has accumulated since the high $20s, and will not add exposure now; stabilization, buying pressure, and clarity on contracts, deployment, and financing are required.
70 - Author views the selloff as a mid-cycle leverage flush: widening CCC credit spreads, tight financial conditions and forced selling are pressuring leveraged AI infrastructure companies.
- The constructive case rests on persistent AI demand, continued hyperscaler CapEx and U.S.-China strategic competition; weaker projects and overvalued companies can still fail.
- Author expects a bottoming process over roughly 5–7 days, followed by stabilization and a broader reversal, and has resumed buying IREN, CIFR, NBIS, APLD and semiconductors.
- The thesis depends on infrastructure returns exceeding funding costs; a hyperscaler CapEx slowdown or worsening neocloud financing would challenge the accumulation view.