- After a 9% decline to $140 versus his $154 average, the author keeps accumulating SPCX toward a $3–4T 2030–31 thesis over a 3–5 year horizon.
- The growth case rests on revenue scaling from $18.7B in 2025 to $14.6B in Q3 2026; management guides $33–37B for Q1 2027.
- He attributes the drop to lock-up supply: up to 3.8B shares have unlocked since August, including 1.3B on October 22; another 798M unlocks December 8.
- The thesis breaks if a handful of AI-lab compute customers cancel from early 2027 or demand slows while SPCX spends $35–40B on quarterly capex.
Investment pitches
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67 62 - The author argues AI liquidation was concentrated in crowded trades, not a dot-com-style market collapse: the Nasdaq-100 is 11% below its October high but still up 10% this year.
- Preferred leaders have reset multiples: NVDA at 22x forward earnings after a 17% drawdown, GOOG at 14x after 31%, CRDO at 22x with 85%+ growth guidance, and cyclical MU at 5x.
- With the bottom unknowable, the author scales in rather than going all-in, already owning NVDA, GOOG and CRDO; a 19-for-19 post-midterm S&P record supports patience, not timing certainty.
86 - Author is building a 2% starter position in NAUT under $3, viewing it as a 3–5-year bet with $8–$13 upside if Voyager becomes a proteomics platform.
- Voyager reads up to 10B molecules per run; peer-reviewed tau work resolved up to 768 proteoform groups, while tau, AKT1 and 20 planned assays support recurring consumables revenue.
- Cash of $114.3M funds operations into Q1 2028, but $15M quarterly burn and a planned pre-mid-2027 raise make dilution the clearest risk; launch is now targeted for mid-2027 after delays.
- At $3.20, the author calculates 22%–36% implied success odds; sizing up depends on year-end beta placement, early-2027 pre-orders and adoption against mass spectrometry, Quantum-Si and Seer.
73 - Author's math puts Anthropic and Google contracts at $48B annualized, implying a $100B–$120B AI revenue run rate by early 2027 and potentially conservative $150B–$180B 2030–31 target.
- The proposed moat is Starlink funding infrastructure while Wall Street lends against it: a $40B Nvidia-chip lease has been arranged, with management citing sub-one-year payback.
- At $145, SPCX trades 8% above its IPO price but 35% below its high; the author remains invested for 3–5 years and is watching December demand and Q1 delivery.
- The thesis depends on Anthropic reaching full run rate, customers staying beyond 2027 exit windows, and capacity arriving on time; concentration, five-year debt versus cancellable contracts, and $48.1B of nine-month capex are major risks.