- AAOI’s Sugar Land Phase 2 delays push the 800G/1.6T ramp back 3–6 months, moving the $471M monthly target to Q4 2027.
- The author cuts 2027 base revenue from $4.0B to $3.8B and bull revenue from $4.8B to $4.5B; the base case still requires $1.35B in 1H and $2.45B in 2H.
- Below $39.50, AAOI’s roughly $3.6B market cap was under 1x the author’s new base-case 2027 revenue.
- Exiting 2027 near $6.0B ARR at 18–20% net margins could support $450–500/share at 7–8x revenue or 40–45x P/E, but only with better execution.
Investment pitches
filter:
67 62 - Author estimates NBIS trades at ~2x 2027 EV/revenue and ~1x 2028 EV/revenue after backing out ~$10B of ClickHouse and AVride equity stakes.
- Revenue scenarios start at $15–18B in 2027 and $30–36B in 2028, with higher cases reaching $21–24B and $42–48B; 25% 2028 EBIT margins could produce $10B+ EBIT.
- Applying 25x to that EBIT implies a potential $250B company, or more than 5x current prices, contingent on the revenue, pricing, and margin assumptions.
- Vera Rubin’s ~95% higher rack cost and greater power draw could support $30–45M/MW on 1–3-year deals, $45–60M on 6–12-month deals, and $60–75M spot.
62 - The author expects peptides moving back to category 1 to benefit HIMS and NURS.V; the detailed thesis centers on NURS.V’s $130M market cap versus ~$110M forecast 2026 revenue.
- Hydreight supplies compliance, legal, telehealth, prescriptions, payments, sourcing, and fulfillment, giving wellness operators a plug-in route as FDA/DOJ pressure pushes grey-market businesses to go legitimate.
- Its platform has ~650 customers, targeting ~2,000 by end-2027; the author expects 2027 revenue growth near 100%, versus the sell side’s 40%.
- At ~$220M 2027 revenue and ~13% net margins, the author calculates NURS.V trades at 4.5x CY2027 EPS; execution and peptide-category changes remain key dependencies.