- The 10-year yield fell from 5.31% to 4.894% while the Nasdaq dropped 6.3%; TrueNorth argues falling yields reflect AI-stock selling, not a tech-buying signal.
- AI-capex collectors led the decline—INTC -35.6%, DELL -20.3%, MU -12.0%—while spenders such as AMZN and MSFT gained, signaling capex-slowdown concerns.
- The index masks rotation: equal-weight S&P 500 gained about 5% in October versus -0.8% for the cap-weighted index; QQQ and SPY holders remain concentrated in lagging tech.
- The playbook is to trim hardware into bounces and avoid averaging down; re-entry requires 3 of NVDA, AMD, MU, LRCX and AMAT to hold BUY signals for two weeks, plus firm hyperscaler capex and KOSPI support.
Investment pitches
filter:
83 75 - BTC rose one year after each of its last three midterms, but prior cycle bottoms arrived 13–71 days after the vote.
- The author attributes the pattern to BTC’s four-year cycle: midterms followed peaks by 11–12 months, rather than causing the bottom.
- The 2026 correction came early and was shallower: $126,297 peak to $57,768 low (-54.3%); $76K holding supports a bottom-in scenario, though $58K–$60K remains possible.
- The stance is constructive over 6–12 months but neutral-to-bearish for 1–2; watch $76K, the Dec. 9 FOMC, and post-vote spot ETF flows, while scaling in rather than chasing election night.
76 - Special committees at both boards make a merger credible, but Polymarket prices only 19.5% odds by year-end versus 69.5% by end-2027.
- The strategic case rests on SpaceX's AI revenue reaching $7.56B in Q3 from $813M, plus faster decisions on Tesla and xAI related-party transactions.
- JPMorgan models an all-stock deal at a 30–35% premium, implying roughly $502–$522 per TSLA share; approval requires 50% of all shares, making dilution and unvoted retail shares central risks.
- Author is medium-term bullish on the TSLA premium but says not to chase; with no merger proposal on December 3's agenda, disappointment may offer a better entry, while advisers or an S-4 would signal progress.