- Scotiabank raises ASTS to Buy with a US$55.70 target from $37 after roughly a 70% selloff, calling valuation attractive but not a bargain.
- SpaceX’s 15,000-satellite Gen2 constellation may narrow ASTS’s technical lead, but its broader ambitions could make ASTS’s wholesale 5G model more valuable to terrestrial carriers.
- The thesis depends on orbiting enough Bluebirds for contiguous coverage; satellites 12–14 reached Florida without a launch date, while Falcon 9 is reportedly booked two years ahead.
- New launchers from Blue Origin, Relativity, Firefly and Rocket Lab could ease access; the author expects ASTS continuous developed-market coverage by Q4 2027.
Investment pitches
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70 67 - Bank of America upgraded ASTS to Buy with a US$55.70 target after the selloff to US$37; valuation is attractive, though not a bargain.
- SpaceX’s GEN2 satellites may narrow ASTS’s direct-to-device lead, but ASTS’s wholesale 5G model could help terrestrial carriers defend against SpaceX.
- The thesis depends on orbiting enough Bluebirds for contiguous coverage; satellites 12–14 reached Florida, but no launch date raises Falcon 9 access concerns.
- Rival launch capacity from New Glenn, Terran R, Eclipse and Neutron supports the author’s expectation of continuous developed-market coverage by Q4/27.
80 - Deutsche Bank upgrades ASTS to Buy after a ~65% decline, retains a $93 target, and estimates Ligado-leased spectrum is worth $19B versus $23B EV—leaving roughly $10/share for the rest of the business.
- It sees increasing odds that T-Mobile switches from Starlink to ASTS through the D2D JV as SpaceX’s mobile push increasingly antagonizes major carriers.
- If Japan authorizes the J-LEO project, its government could fund up to $1B of constellation capex; SDA support for sensing tests adds government-business optionality.
- Launch availability remains critical to service rollout, partner retention, and revenue growth, though Blue Origin’s pad rebuild and alternative launches make the outlook incrementally better.