- NBIS has suffered four roughly 35–54% drawdowns in 18 months; the author is holding, arguing volatility matters less than structural business deterioration.
- The bullish case rests on a $3.5B Citi credit line at ~6.5%, debt roughly equal to cash, ~50% core AI-cloud adjusted EBITDA, and 22-month GPU payback against 8+ year contracts.
- An asset-light model and continued AI-cloud scaling support the thesis; the author expects Q3 to establish a bullish trajectory into late 2026 and 2027.
Investment pitches
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63 61 - At roughly $160/share and a $43B market cap, NBIS may be undervalued if its >100% ARR growth continues into AI-cloud expansion.
- Management commentary on tens of billions in 2027 revenue, 1GW of Vera Rubin GPUs, and $40–50M/MW short-term pricing supports the author’s $15B–$35B end-2027 ARR scenarios.
- Using approximately 400M shares and 6x–10x ARR, the author’s $20B base case implies roughly $300–$500 per share by end-2027; they remain heavily invested.
- These are illustrative, not forecasts: capacity deployment, utilization, contract mix, dilution, financing execution, and macro conditions determine whether the valuation works.