- Author sees an AI correction, not a bubble burst: forecast NTM P/E is ~12–14x for NVDA versus 32x+ last year, while MU trades below 5x with a ~0.2x PEG.
- Higher rates and simultaneous capital needs should make financing more selective, raise borrowing costs, and compress multiples for the next 12–18 months even as AI businesses grow.
- Improving custom chips such as Amazon’s Trainium threaten Nvidia’s future pricing power and margins; NVDA multiple compression can pull the wider AI trade lower.
- Author attributes recent selling mainly to hedge-fund deleveraging, remains bullish over 3+ years, but expects investors to wait for consolidation or bullish price action and stay open to contrary data.
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