- Despite a drop from $51 to $13 after the SpaceX IPO, the author remains invested: Planet’s recurring data business and historical archive support a differentiated, scalable asset.
- The model monetizes one satellite feed across customers; 99% of Q1 FY2027 ACV was recurring, while the archive since 2017 and AI search could expand usage.
- Execution supports the thesis: Q2 FY2027 revenue rose 58% to $116.1m, six-month FCF was $21.3m, and liquidity reached $865.4m; the $1.5bn ATM adds strategic capital but dilutes shareholders.
- The author will watch stock-based compensation, $100–115m of FY2027 capex, and AI customer conversion; SpaceX and competitors remain risks, but have not broken the thesis.
Investment pitches
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69 75 - The Neutron delay defers 3–5 early launches; the author estimates $150–275 million of revenue and margin accretion shift beyond 2027.
- Higher R&D and operating cash burn postpone positive FCF and Adjusted EBITDA; the author models $300–350 million annual outflows and $300+ million of additional burn.
- RKLB’s $2.1 billion liquidity, $2.36 billion backlog, and Space Systems revenue base remain intact, though dilution and lower-margin mix temper the case; the author views the drop as an attractive entry.