- SHEN’s $580M market cap reflects current -$200M FCF, but its fiber build ends this year: capex falls from $296M to ~$100M, with management guiding positive FCF next year.
- Three concurrent changes—10% headcount reduction ($12.3M), December 2025 ABS refinancing ($11M), and construction-overhead normalization—could add $25M+ to earnings before new customers.
- Customer penetration is 21% of homes passed versus a 37% historical maturity target; the author estimates reaching it adds $57M EBITDA at 77% incremental margins, nearly 40% above current levels.
- The author cites six similar PE wins in five years, including Searchlight’s 270% return, and sees a hyperscaler MSA as further upside; public-market impatience remains the timing risk.
Investment pitches
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